Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3013d70f3c3bfc7352ab90dcb9322092d8fdc9b35483772f72e6ec08d9bebb21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $284,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 29c | 37,638$11,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,588.69 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 28c | 16,916$4,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,108.28 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17db…5f6dbacked Yes | 33c | 15,157$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,157.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…da0abacked No | 67c | 14,256$9,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,595.99 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 31c | 13,140$4,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,083.21 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 52c | 12,700$6,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,616 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed No | 56c | 12,123$6,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,788.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 23c | 12,010$2,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,289.15 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed No | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 28c | 8,776$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,296.39 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 33c | 7,500$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,025 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 22c | 6,678$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,201.36 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…dd1abacked Yes | 19c | 5,594$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,531.52 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc87…2765backed No | 31c | 5,500$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 54c | 5,000$2,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,282.18 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 39c | 5,000$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.4 | 133 | 3.8%5 W · 128 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…ed1fbacked Yes | 46c | 4,130$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,230.2 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes | 29c | 4,036$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,864.1 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2154…715cbacked No | 79c | 3,500$2,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,775 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 43c | 3,250$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 42c | 3,050$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.75 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 15c | 2,667$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,266.67 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…4eb6backed Yes | 30c | 2,286$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,163$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.97 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…cec9backed Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +8.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +301.4%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 48c | 1,911$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.88 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,800$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.96 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 31c | 1,512$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.55 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb41…a826backed No | 6c | 1,086$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,086$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.58 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 28c | 1,035$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.05 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a5…55e9backed Yes | 47c | 1,001$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…f703backed No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +10.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 18c | 970.53$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.92 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…56cbbacked Yes | 29c | 862.93$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 55c | 750$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 15c | 750$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.5 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 18c | 669.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.23 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.33per pick | 14cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…ff11backed Yes | 28c | 584.35$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.34 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 72c | 583.8$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.14 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…25f8backed No | 62c | 532$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf1…b3afbacked Yes | 22c | 525.84$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked No | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…cfc4backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 25c | 500$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +4.4wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +341.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…a376backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdc…49ffbacked No | 70c | 499.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 34c | 487.71$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.74 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 22c | 438$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.85 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…af58backed No | 73c | 373.03$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.64 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…fd52backed Yes | 21c | 353.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa366…54efbacked No | 67c | 350$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 157 | 54.8%86 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 73c | 300$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.74 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cae…1537backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked No | 56c | 298.71$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.14 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…cd03backed Yes | 69c | 288.76$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…0eb4backed No | 67c | 250.98$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.49 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…7547backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 14c | 249.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.99 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…af57backed No | 80c | 246.65$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…6b43backed Yes | 16c | 205$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 14cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…2392backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +13.9wins | +0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 71c | 199.97$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.98 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…807cbacked No | 71c | 189.15$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.3 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe118…c4ecbacked Yes | 15c | 133.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +191.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 66c | 130$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…5c1fbacked Yes | 21c | 128.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked No | 78c | 101.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -11.2wins | -0.35per pick | 72cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…ad28backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…3fe3backed No | 79c | 98.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 17c | 82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +85%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce4e…c56fbacked Yes | 25c | 81.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c6…b899backed No | 62c | 70.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068d…70d3backed Yes | 17c | 69.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…21d6backed No | 79c | 69.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 66c | 56.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…8bb9backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…ff2abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e14…5adabacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…4e09backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…e285backed Yes | 41c | 49.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093d…5aefbacked Yes | 21c | 48.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 38c | 46.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…2a2abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…9684backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -7.7wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -35%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x659a…60ebbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…bb53backed No | 79c | 37.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb5…6baebacked No | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.