TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$284,233
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$273,705

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,233 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes29c37,638$11,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,588.6935123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes28c16,916$4,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,108.2863835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17db…5f6dbacked Yes33c15,157$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,157.19560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+72.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9af5…da0abacked No67c14,256$9,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,595.991931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+67.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa279…0371backed No31c13,140$4,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,083.215444.4%24 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No52c12,700$6,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,61610545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9596…b1e4backed No56c12,123$6,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,788.881457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes23c12,010$2,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,289.1537745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed No50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes28c8,776$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,296.3955032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes33c7,500$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0252532%8 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf69b…0a45backed Yes22c6,678$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,201.369927.3%27 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0856…dd1abacked Yes19c5,594$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,531.524555.6%25 W · 20 L+7.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcc87…2765backed No31c5,500$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,715757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes54c5,000$2,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,282.1816761.7%103 W · 64 L+19.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No39c5,000$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.41333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfff1…ed1fbacked Yes46c4,130$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,230.22763%17 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes29c4,036$1,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,864.14736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2154…715cbacked No79c3,500$2,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7752142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-35.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes43c3,250$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,85987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes42c3,050$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.7525824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes15c2,667$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,266.67832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b42…4eb6backed Yes30c2,286$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.511040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes23c2,163$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.9718425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No80c2,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6001833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x018a…cec9backed Yes22c2,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56012100%12 W · 0 L+8.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+301.4%equal weight75+0.23 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked Yes48c1,911$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.8815561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes14c1,800$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,544.967219.4%14 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes31c1,512$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.5524654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb41…a826backed No6c1,086$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.54520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes25c1,086$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.5811316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes28c1,035$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.0522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43a5…55e9backed Yes47c1,001$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.531154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No79c1,000$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7901782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes22c1,000$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7807949.4%39 W · 40 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes18c970.53$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.9218315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x021a…56cbbacked Yes29c862.93$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.931346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No55c750$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.52222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes15c750$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.59824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes18c669.23$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.231747.1%8 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.33per pick14cpaid+200.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x430a…ff11backed Yes28c584.35$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.345955.9%33 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No72c583.8$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.149546.3%44 W · 51 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb7d…25f8backed No62c532$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.84771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf1…b3afbacked Yes22c525.84$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.35812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked No59c508.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a55…cfc4backed No67c500$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3355156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+34%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0678…9fd0backed No78c500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed Yes25c500$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3736100%6 W · 0 L+4.4wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+341.5%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xcb49…a376backed No67c500$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3354845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabdc…49ffbacked No70c499.99$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.994639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No34c487.71$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.742250%11 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes22c438$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.858920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7120…af58backed No73c373.03$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.641735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-48.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd568…fd52backed Yes21c353.41$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+135.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa366…54efbacked No67c350$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.7515754.8%86 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1772729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed No73c300$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.747357.5%42 W · 31 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cae…1537backed No77c300$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid+23.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed Yes15c300$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25514337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd574…425dbacked No56c298.71$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.142875%21 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b2f…cd03backed Yes69c288.76$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.23056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc53c…0eb4backed No67c250.98$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.497652.6%40 W · 36 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0502…7547backed Yes16c250$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2102030%6 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick10cpaid+73.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x46a1…2736backed Yes14c249.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.993969.2%27 W · 12 L+6.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+48.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xc9dd…af57backed No80c246.65$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15a9…6b43backed Yes16c205$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.152339.1%9 W · 14 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick14cpaid+155.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x637d…2392backed Yes24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1527048.6%34 W · 36 L+13.9wins+0.20per pick29cpaid+58.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No71c199.97$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.984250%21 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdeb9…807cbacked No71c189.15$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.32450%12 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe118…c4ecbacked Yes15c133.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.22666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+191.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No66c130$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.258239%32 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11b5…5c1fbacked Yes21c128.57$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.57616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf14e…86efbacked Yes16c125$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1053721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+36.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked No78c101.67$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.073237.5%12 W · 20 L-11.2wins-0.35per pick72cpaid-50.3%equal weight28-0.20 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517537.3%28 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2260…ad28backed No56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561225%3 W · 9 L-4.6wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x4047…3fe3backed No79c98.28$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.39520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes22c90.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.91385.3%2 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick14cpaid-74.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes17c82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.84560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+85%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce4e…c56fbacked Yes25c81.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.21425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c6…b899backed No62c70.34$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes17c69.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.214517.8%8 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ad4…21d6backed No79c69.53$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked No66c56.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5726274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xb3e0…8bb9backed Yes39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.284100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+94.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9682…ff2abacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e14…5adabacked Yes25c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.72050%10 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c82…4e09backed Yes21c49.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.493655.6%20 W · 16 L+8.0wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+114.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x538e…e285backed Yes41c49.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.12540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x093d…5aefbacked Yes21c48.33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes38c46.94$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.130531.1%95 W · 210 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No54c42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.687549.3%37 W · 38 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8367…2a2abacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a0…9684backed No58c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.353844.7%17 W · 21 L-7.7wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-35%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x659a…60ebbacked No50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9750…bb53backed No79c37.81$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-59.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdb5…6baebacked No50c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes42c26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.081,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.