Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $122k in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3623473139ad9831dfa9d523b9c3b35ceaa9b2c3e1dde9cfbbe5f06acd2ad809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf00b…9c89backed No | 0c | 32,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da0…8a13backed No | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 22c | 16,963$3,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,775.08 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 17c | 6,253$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.8 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 18c | 3,880$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed No | 16c | 3,793$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.5 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…9f03backed No | 13c | 2,250$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.83 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 17c | 2,103$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.32 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…b2d3backed No | 5c | 1,431$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdc…49ffbacked No | 10c | 999.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes | 73c | 973.67$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.24 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5c…b34abacked Yes | 76c | 965.17$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 80c | 921.69$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 69c | 600.73$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.22 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…6ffbbacked No | 8c | 594.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 590$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa740…ee18backed Yes | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…5608backed Yes | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…4c1abacked No | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 77c | 434.78$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…ff11backed No | 23c | 330.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes | 80c | 257.9$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 80c | 249.28$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…5ba4backed No | 6c | 233.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 103 | 0%0 W · 103 L | -7.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea9…d27ebacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Yes | 72c | 139.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 32c | 103.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24d…904fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked No | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…7ff7backed No | 23c | 68.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ee2dbacked Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396e…de17backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65e4…2420backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…5602backed Yes | 70c | 31.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 80c | 26.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe638…a296backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81cd…446fbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedc…e543backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $122k in October?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.