Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $114k in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6e171fdc46ebdecb642a6c41c7afd2e3d703c3a90fe9fa94dcb9d239add389
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $374,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $357,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $374,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed No | 64c | 31,510$20,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,204.97 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 57c | 28,265$16,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,204.44 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 42c | 26,801$11,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,615.74 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 50c | 21,713$10,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,889.19 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 32c | 18,031$5,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,203.4 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…0dd6backed No | 69c | 16,651$11,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,487.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 51cpaid | -78%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 36c | 16,289$5,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,413.72 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 29c | 13,555$3,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,622.18 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 50c | 9,999$4,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,973.54 | 133 | 3.8%5 W · 128 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 39c | 9,721$3,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,912.29 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed Yes | 62c | 9,366$5,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,557.94 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes | 41c | 8,485$3,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,973.54 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 38c | 5,200$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.07 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed No | 43c | 5,066$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.39 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 45c | 4,641$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,560.55 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…bdb9backed Yes | 47c | 4,568$2,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.3 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a47…aa53backed Yes | 29c | 4,542$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,203.9 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…62e0backed No | 57c | 4,000$2,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,270 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…3ce9backed Yes | 62c | 3,600$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 32c | 3,557$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.94 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed No | 67c | 3,168$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.18 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 34c | 3,050$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63be…2c64backed No | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 42cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…dd1abacked Yes | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,949.98 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +7.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed No | 50c | 2,960$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 50c | 2,802$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.26 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 38c | 2,296$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.73 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd321…a77fbacked No | 74c | 2,263$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.98 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked No | 23c | 2,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…cec9backed Yes | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +8.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +301.4%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 51c | 1,991$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.9 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…af8bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,900$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073 | 140 | 75.7%106 W · 34 L | +17.6wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…49f7backed No | 37c | 1,850$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.5 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 70c | 1,800$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…f3ccbacked Yes | 56c | 1,784$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.05 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e01…2c8abacked Yes | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.89 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce8…767bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,444$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,238$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 46c | 1,121$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 37c | 1,077$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.19 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f0…f465backed Yes | 79c | 1,000$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb37…fbacbacked No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x220a…1795backed No | 43c | 978.85$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…da0abacked No | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 44c | 930$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.5 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 62c | 887.94$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked No | 67c | 862.58$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.93 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -11.2wins | -0.35per pick | 72cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 61c | 817.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked No | 46c | 809.04$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.6 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa7…01bdbacked No | 69c | 740$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…3fc6backed No | 42c | 720$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc355…8a90backed No | 44c | 676.27$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.56 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 60cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…9717backed Yes | 52c | 669.81$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 36c | 633.83$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.19 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +4.4wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +341.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 34c | 605.92$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.45 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d0…264cbacked No | 66c | 604$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe910…0ecdbacked No | 61c | 598.36$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x950e…3a2cbacked Yes | 42c | 593.22$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38d…5895backed Yes | 37c | 542.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 39c | 525$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.91 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed No | 69c | 510.84$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf4…5608backed Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…d5b6backed No | 64c | 499.56$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed Yes | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc728…9c2dbacked No | 39c | 462.18$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 67c | 446.87$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e47…ecf7backed No | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 58c | 396.74$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.75 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 30c | 335.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.63 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfda6…4eddbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…9980backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked No | 38c | 322.42$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53da…7603backed Yes | 60c | 300$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…2469backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcece…8c50backed No | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes | 58c | 288.56$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.3 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee5…7bf0backed No | 69c | 282.48$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.91 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cae…1537backed No | 59c | 270$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…bf90backed Yes | 55c | 266.95$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.13 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f02…e3eabacked Yes | 44c | 244.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…ff11backed Yes | 47c | 239.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.05 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc12…bcecbacked Yes | 44c | 227.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x396e…de17backed Yes | 67c | 220$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…98aebacked Yes | 55c | 208.87$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 36c | 205$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…8a1fbacked Yes | 55c | 200.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -6.0wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…af58backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 114 | 42.1%48 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…b2d3backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…5c22backed No | 57c | 192.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…d571backed Yes | 28c | 191.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…428abacked Yes | 49c | 180$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 37c | 179.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.08 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114k in October?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.