TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,135,953
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,870,203

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,135,953 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 708 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes17c236,670$41,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,213.8735123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9540…fca5backed Yes0c199,999$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f1…2417backed Yes19c117,087$21,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,724.531513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked No77c73,940$57,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,903.4215561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7ff6…a199backed Yes6c64,947$3,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,763.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes31c64,492$19,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,675.8837745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes28c63,052$17,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,544.7963835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a34…c226backed Yes4c60,341$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,180.353315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked No65c58,567$38,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,373.631963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes21c51,443$10,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,644.2812025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfde9…c348backed Yes4c49,342$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed No74c48,096$35,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,389.591573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x94da…2bf1backed No77c47,580$36,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,125.23351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes14c42,720$6,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,085.65659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf200…cf95backed Yes3c42,449$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90b5…d709backed Yes1c41,810$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.11140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes5c39,170$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.4518425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x295d…accebacked Yes21c38,254$8,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,009.91147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes34c36,272$12,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,231.845034%17 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed No73c35,677$25,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,802.9714337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c33,750$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea9…d8e9backed Yes2c27,864$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No65c26,368$17,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,100.4810545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes21c25,365$5,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,208.4987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c24,611$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.591,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9821…6c9dbacked Yes6c22,692$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.35540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes24c21,888$5,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20525824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes8c21,430$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.9411210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb838…00f8backed Yes2c20,517$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes8c20,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60010313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x901c…2d73backed Yes0c19,877$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No70c18,050$12,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,488.194257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes28c18,014$5,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,015.9519535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3975…0f53backed Yes3c18,000$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.31508%4 W · 46 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9615…38acbacked Yes33c17,036$5,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,600.821428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6b…5578backed Yes2c15,412$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.24933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-48.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c14,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.52290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e0…7395backed No80c14,182$11,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,869.91757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x658d…b95dbacked Yes20c14,040$2,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,807.941656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e12…1c24backed No72c13,708$9,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,897.27650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0276…19d8backed Yes20c13,581$2,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,667.771931.6%6 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+64.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6428…88a6backed Yes13c13,420$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c90…aa32backed Yes14c13,002$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x988a…353fbacked Yes3c12,859$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c12,207$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.211488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17db…5f6dbacked Yes9c11,457$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+72.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe913…e857backed Yes1c11,453$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82cb…f46dbacked Yes2c11,123$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No74c11,000$8,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,836.994839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…8f90backed Yes0c10,123$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes0c10,015$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5c93…d15cbacked Yes1c10,000$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.06650%3 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+81.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x329d…0ec7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-97.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9d8…86aabacked Yes5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes18c9,894$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,758.494736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes10c9,861$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0356723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b59…6445backed Yes19c9,823$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9001533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+110%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No56c9,596$5,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,198.662250%11 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0ea…d32ebacked Yes1c9,173$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2961…bac2backed Yes3c9,003$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.5180%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes23c8,921$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018.521040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e45…ae93backed Yes29c8,623$2,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.551330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f5…59a0backed Yes15c8,619$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.22317.4%4 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes12c8,571$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…d271backed Yes1c8,340$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes26c8,245$2,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes11c8,229$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.98920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c7,970$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.05940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes0c7,080$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.368625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes9c7,078$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.3128021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b0…533bbacked Yes14c7,040$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…04cebacked Yes12c7,000$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862130%0 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed Yes37c6,882$2,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,556.162050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5714…119dbacked Yes31c6,837$2,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,130.691553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe96…94d5backed Yes12c6,368$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x352f…586fbacked Yes27c6,248$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes26c6,100$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,569.991198.4%10 W · 109 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+90.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d2…2381backed Yes10c6,027$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.86244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c6,023$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.191360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x885c…d9e4backed No74c5,992$4,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0282…d571backed Yes14c5,871$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.451533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x220a…1795backed Yes19c5,756$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.12138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67c2…84f3backed Yes10c5,717$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No79c5,683$4,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,184.498038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a75…f947backed Yes2c5,533$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-56.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9010…32a0backed Yes18c5,469$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9851811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes7c5,459$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.127328.8%21 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes24c5,219$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.943923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed No75c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2502941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed35…b9a8backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes28c4,858$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.61154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fc4…7bb2backed Yes14c4,783$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.9550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes1c4,739$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6723411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x345e…6bc7backed Yes6c4,638$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.023417.6%6 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb87d…85f3backed Yes5c4,613$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+235.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes26c4,452$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.2819439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b42…4eb6backed Yes33c4,439$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.081040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes2c4,358$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.37949.4%39 W · 40 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4d53…b56ebacked Yes2c4,240$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0940%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x916d…cc95backed Yes2c4,194$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.