TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,109,930
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,228,114

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,109,930 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes1c124,462$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.7123411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes7c120,032$7,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,965.1319535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9540…fca5backed Yes0c100,882$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes0c99,999$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-74.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e6a…0eadbacked Yes0c80,878$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05da…ae41backed Yes0c74,999$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f5c…bd4dbacked Yes9c73,605$6,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,469.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes2c72,750$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.2918315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c83…4119backed Yes0c71,886$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee4f…82debacked Yes4c63,770$2,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes3c61,460$1,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.971024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes2c59,985$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105250%0 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes3c54,057$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e8…0d30backed Yes6c53,200$3,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,319.5930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes7c52,646$3,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,726.9512025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes4c51,040$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.33319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8768…dd9bbacked Yes5c50,808$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,733.251533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8115…3622backed Yes6c46,939$2,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,764.92137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce8…2043backed Yes5c42,337$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes5c38,343$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900.375034%17 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02ee…0938backed Yes2c37,528$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.1880%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes0c32,532$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5f2…678ebacked Yes0c31,076$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes5c30,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-81.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1e…d9a3backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20f3…0ce0backed Yes2c25,049$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05b3…f144backed Yes0c25,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c24,500$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.52290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes7c23,712$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.515034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb99d…1cfabacked Yes4c23,635$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.284736.2%17 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e18…06afbacked Yes0c23,264$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8666…d7c7backed Yes4c22,802$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9605933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa077…5715backed Yes5c21,330$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Yes2c21,000$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b2…2642backed Yes2c20,752$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.73180%0 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca3…bcb0backed Yes0c20,501$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes3c20,467$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.419913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b60…f259backed Yes1c20,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes0c19,476$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.519022.2%20 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.09per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb23…c1ffbacked Yes4c19,078$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.1550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x961a…50c7backed Yes2c18,797$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-82.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes2c18,651$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.532270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6122backed Yes2c18,570$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db5…70f9backed Yes4c18,410$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x972a…21cdbacked Yes0c16,917$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ee…4ab8backed Yes3c16,257$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.5790%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc18…ec17backed Yes2c16,080$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.282832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc014…677dbacked Yes2c15,544$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaded…c174backed Yes2c15,053$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.650%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x708a…1f12backed Yes1c14,734$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes0c14,522$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.571360%0 W · 136 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cda…f20cbacked Yes7c14,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9801330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+123%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x329d…0ec7backed Yes1c13,650$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.65531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-97.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb089…b6a5backed Yes7c13,604$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2d…aef6backed Yes5c13,308$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c1…b742backed Yes1c12,800$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-50.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ac…f0d9backed Yes3c12,567$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb01b…e951backed Yes0c12,129$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb27e…95e9backed Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes3c11,905$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.637020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Yes4c11,874$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.86478.5%4 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-85.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9419…a40fbacked Yes2c11,577$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25060%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb67…cb9bbacked Yes6c11,398$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8e…d105backed Yes4c11,364$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeec0…37c1backed Yes3c11,320$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.18220%0 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd6b…d1cabacked Yes8c11,237$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.68922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes4c10,426$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.7711316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f49…7ce8backed Yes1c10,332$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf57e…5a1bbacked Yes10c10,300$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98160%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecb…d40dbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x957e…5758backed Yes3c9,551$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2931010%1 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-83.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbd…8086backed Yes4c9,497$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.82190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked Yes3c9,492$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.1815561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes5c9,473$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.835123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd33f…33e1backed Yes0c9,274$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.08140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes3c9,200$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.931833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c9,195$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.471,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8458…17eabacked Yes0c8,250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes9c8,062$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes2c8,000$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0c1…e861backed Yes4c7,791$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.3880%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes5c7,475$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.768920.2%18 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes4c7,475$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.338619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x382c…f8afbacked Yes1c7,325$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf1…dfbbbacked Yes2c7,261$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5da9…abf8backed Yes1c7,127$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecce…fdb4backed Yes1c6,984$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e1…099bbacked Yes3c6,822$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5040…4d83backed Yes3c6,816$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…2556backed Yes1c6,800$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.82313%3 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87bd…4c30backed Yes6c6,748$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a95…bb94backed Yes3c6,581$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0926…51dabacked Yes8c6,160$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.63119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-86%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01a8…9f9abacked Yes4c5,953$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.14110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d6…e3edbacked Yes5c5,887$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x933b…ed9abacked Yes2c5,800$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe36d…290ebacked Yes2c5,500$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14d9…407dbacked Yes1c5,379$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.92200%0 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ca0…d4c7backed Yes2c5,365$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.06120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.