Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82734fdd42905bcb4cc8594ec5083430cd9a266d02a92cb8c0a96937fbfb80eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,479,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,731,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,479,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 1c | 31,449$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.86 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 28,499$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…c72dbacked Yes | 0c | 27,231$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 0c | 24,657$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…6f07backed Yes | 2c | 23,184$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…0ec7backed Yes | 0c | 19,170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -97.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc033…859bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,285$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 14,057$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.57 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…2dbfbacked Yes | 1c | 13,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…4816backed Yes | 1c | 10,930$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 10,160$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.39 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57df…aef8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…ac82backed Yes | 0c | 8,800$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dab…f169backed Yes | 0c | 8,315$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 2c | 7,973$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.73 | 183 | 15.3%28 W · 155 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…babcbacked Yes | 4c | 7,673$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 1c | 7,200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ecd4backed Yes | 3c | 7,112$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.97 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,158$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 48 | 2.1%1 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -93.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,032$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.33per pick | 14cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked Yes | 2c | 5,421$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1c…55cabacked Yes | 1c | 4,592$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…f072backed Yes | 1c | 4,281$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 2c | 4,191$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aae…d469backed Yes | 2c | 4,147$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…bc6ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,100$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4325…cd10backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac21…b3b2backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…b6b6backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…47f2backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf19a…0f43backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43bd…0aa4backed Yes | 1c | 3,421$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc22…3e94backed Yes | 2c | 3,066$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf51…a223backed Yes | 2c | 3,066$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 3c | 3,021$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.57 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,687$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…d6f3backed Yes | 2c | 2,572$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 4c | 2,504$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…f144backed Yes | 2c | 2,430$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 2c | 2,394$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342e…7e88backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…4e09backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…f760backed Yes | 1c | 1,992$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…175bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,980$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…8e2bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,820$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea5…80f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 1c | 1,698$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…18aabacked Yes | 1c | 1,672$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 3c | 1,551$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,461$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d4…6e9bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…55b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,109$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…575ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,065$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7937backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…37bcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa663…438dbacked Yes | 2c | 999$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 4c | 924.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x181c…c6cdbacked Yes | 2c | 830.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…883fbacked Yes | 2c | 770$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 3c | 768.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…f655backed Yes | 2c | 733.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…5ccebacked Yes | 3c | 606.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 2c | 582.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 499.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…b36abacked Yes | 3c | 354.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -86%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.