TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x28c8…f144

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
60
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NFL, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 55 out of 100; worst Commodities at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3016.7%5 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.1
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Solana reach $100 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.07
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.65
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.98
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.87
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.8
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$146.4
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.3
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,645Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,645.35
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$171.7
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$169.02
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$256.16
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$2,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,030.47
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$794Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$794.24
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$120.66
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 November 17-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$90.9
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,555Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+149.9%+$2,330.35
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+310.6%+$491.7
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$196.7
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$758Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$758.32
Will Solana dip to $150 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.78
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.93
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.24
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.59
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.2
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.4
Spread: United States (-1.5)backed United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$31.28
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Ecuador?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.95
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+58.4%+$6.45
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+456.6%+$159.81
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$47
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
All 14 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT120%0 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Commodities — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.33
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.92
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$384.76
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$270.4
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.98
Will Gold close between $4700 and $4800 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Gold close between $4900 and $5000 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will Gold close between $4800 and $4900 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Gold close above $5000 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$507Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$507.04
Will Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$53.1
All 12 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+199.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Steelers vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$40.8
Bills vs. Falconsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$46.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,037Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$2,036.55
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.