TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 November 17-23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$482,927
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$545,154

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $482,927 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes63c82,526$51,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,729.677123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed No48c30,676$14,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,826.141020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a92…071ebacked Yes47c15,524$7,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,190.733076.7%23 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.30per pick47cpaid+47.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Yes35c15,000$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,7502227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes59c11,281$6,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,671.7911554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes49c10,972$5,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,637.8987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed Yes32c9,970$3,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,793.732832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No34c9,780$3,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,325.874050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes57c8,081$4,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,446.2258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x790e…76afbacked No24c7,482$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.911145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc006…1c7abacked Yes71c5,613$4,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.61776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes42c5,010$2,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,917.053836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No34c5,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7204839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No60c5,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00019535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66c2…0f22backed Yes62c4,897$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.871450%7 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No21c3,359$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.458625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdff…806ebacked Yes45c2,915$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.152161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f06…39c7backed Yes33c2,830$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.83100%3 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+538.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes20c2,525$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0256723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c1a…c3b0backed No54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No7c1,999$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.935837.9%22 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes62c1,965$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.8822550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5461…742fbacked No49c1,880$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+212.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes31c1,553$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.5255032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed No70c1,502$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed No29c1,500$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43012020%24 W · 96 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes23c1,400$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.7228021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes23c1,304$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.35425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde14…72dabacked No7c1,300$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x402e…5d12backed No70c1,257$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.161040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d71…87d5backed No63c1,200$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7591369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9b…025bbacked No58c1,084$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.551435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-41.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f47…338ebacked No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3302927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes12c1,000$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8831127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+162.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd99f…4768backed Yes26c768.92$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.923036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99cc…cdcebacked No14c711.28$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf97e…da44backed Yes27c688.24$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.421154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f5…eaaebacked No40c652.05$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.922330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1b5…c986backed Yes27c648$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+86%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d43…bec0backed No78c630$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5738…5ca3backed Yes41c614.31$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.21947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x363a…df44backed No33c600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1982965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14e1…8cd2backed Yes47c550$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb532…84a4backed Yes56c535.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.71837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e0…b240backed No77c370.2$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.85520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick65cpaid-74.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc06a…48a4backed No74c314.27$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fbb…a41abacked Yes17c298$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.342240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes61c264.02$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.4226274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No26c258.42$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.964812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes15c250$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.517231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes48c245.92$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.340643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes45c244.65$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.611428.6%4 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+61.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28c8…f144backed No38c240$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.93016.7%5 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17cb…d67cbacked Yes32c210$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.83151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked No60c205$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.117229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x80fd…a882backed Yes25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+176.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f87…c701backed No38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5f1…5743backed Yes27c185.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.191747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7470…c5bcbacked No35c184.09$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+33.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeea…c1dcbacked No72c183.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.21861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd448…f700backed Yes27c174.86$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.861338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aca…ee0abacked Yes61c161.26$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e7…4f28backed No20c158.02$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes75c150$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.14035%14 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98e7…64ddbacked No34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3f1…b361backed Yes69c145.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e07…3d79backed Yes69c145.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f7…eb39backed Yes69c145.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a9…0ed2backed Yes69c145.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607f…a01ebacked Yes69c145.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bcb…6c8ebacked No70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1275…1517backed No62c140$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.82552%13 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes48c140$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.84436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5be5…eb32backed Yes72c139.76$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f78…8603backed Yes72c139.76$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c4…d1d5backed Yes72c139.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.94771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb765…8e0cbacked Yes72c138.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.89475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a63…164abacked Yes72c138.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.82580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…6966backed Yes72c138.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4091…07f2backed No13c131.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe5…ea69backed No57c129.83$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.512552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b3…d2aabacked Yes73c129.41$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No26c128.01$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.061,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked Yes22c113.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.645819%11 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd55d…7484backed No68c110$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.83339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4f…54e2backed Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$831315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f6c…e10dbacked Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832450%12 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507746.8%36 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f6…1a20backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick18cpaid+178.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b7d4backed Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+79.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86f0…be32backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212263.6%14 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4043…19cfbacked No68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e6…d077backed Yes41c98.46$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.46683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+107.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fb3…c770backed No20c95.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.052245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d5…bef9backed Yes18c94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick21cpaid+170.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd36…0f01backed No55c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.61060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc887…869bbacked Yes38c80$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.63138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.