Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cedb420d88694001607456eb24295649e87bd19258f86d562d017057786f130
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $425,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $386,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $425,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ddb…d96bbacked No | 0c | 28,800$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 10c | 27,726$2,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,993.96 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed No | 0c | 27,699$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a92…071ebacked Yes | 22c | 24,187$5,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,821.79 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +9.0wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…099ebacked No | 0c | 19,801$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…76afbacked Yes | 28c | 14,517$4,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,411.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked No | 0c | 10,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 80 | 0%0 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…9017backed No | 70c | 10,209$7,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,194.38 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6471…1738backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…806ebacked Yes | 18c | 9,506$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,758.27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed No | 77c | 7,706$5,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,938.47 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 11c | 6,992$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,192.9 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 26c | 6,652$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,918.91 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…39c7backed Yes | 10c | 4,088$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,675.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +538.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 18c | 2,663$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,178.04 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 15c | 2,595$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,209.07 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 12c | 2,318$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.2 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9f…d10fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…7408backed Yes | 26c | 1,931$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked No | 78c | 1,929$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 1,490$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.83 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 26c | 924.49$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.19 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 829.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.44 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5738…5ca3backed Yes | 13c | 766.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.86 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 13c | 763.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.3 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…b362backed Yes | 9c | 702.86$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ef…7f89backed Yes | 5c | 646.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +515.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 22c | 636$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.66 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1824…571abacked Yes | 29c | 612.76$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…c051backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +1,134.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 15c | 599.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +83%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x434a…5218backed Yes | 29c | 533$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…7382backed Yes | 4c | 519.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.28 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…ea69backed Yes | 12c | 508.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.77 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 10c | 475.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.91 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…df44backed Yes | 14c | 467$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.21 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7470…c5bcbacked Yes | 27c | 450$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 6c | 334.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.88 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 34c | 313.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.6 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe124…0829backed Yes | 4c | 306.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,123.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…6cfabacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +575.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…c5fabacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…5743backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 26c | 265.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.78 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 32c | 236.44$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0921…263ebacked Yes | 10c | 200.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.72 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 200.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.67 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 11c | 200$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.4 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…800abacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…a1f6backed Yes | 26c | 152.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…3392backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aff…d5c0backed Yes | 8c | 140.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +212.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a66…5b1bbacked Yes | 13c | 133.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.01 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 13c | 100.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +191.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbeea…c1dcbacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22e…8eb7backed Yes | 27c | 74.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b7d4backed No | 67c | 73.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…e39dbacked No | 71c | 56.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…5601backed Yes | 19c | 53.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +161.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…1761backed Yes | 19c | 52.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…c4e0backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0a…56c3backed Yes | 24c | 43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478d…9ea9backed No | 72c | 35.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…6718backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…6064backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…9728backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…04cabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 78c | 19.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970b…d7b6backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 17-23?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.