TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 17-23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$412,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$402,934

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $412,408 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a92…071ebacked Yes35c48,888$17,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,543.013076.7%23 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.30per pick47cpaid+47.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes17c46,831$8,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,739.877123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed No43c31,751$13,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,624.991020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes34c28,664$9,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,017.458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked No70c25,000$17,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,599.6119535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2b6…80b9backed No77c18,019$13,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,868.881154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed No50c13,309$6,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,649.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Yes44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6002227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5e…cc9ebacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdff…806ebacked Yes30c8,979$2,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,296.552161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed No51c8,816$4,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,473.012832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed No66c8,062$5,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,301.054047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes19c7,793$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,313.596723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes23c7,322$1,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,666.5255032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes44c6,573$2,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,649.1311554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x66c2…0f22backed Yes60c4,968$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.331450%7 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0654…42a0backed Yes9c4,444$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,044.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes23c3,990$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,091.4987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x790e…76afbacked Yes33c3,249$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,178.431145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a1…fb90backed Yes33c3,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,010450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…eb16backed Yes11c2,000$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+166.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes7c2,000$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8607810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd805…52c2backed Yes13c1,884$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.745446.3%25 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe480…ee6cbacked Yes12c1,579$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+180.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7db…feb0backed Yes9c1,300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1831936.8%7 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick18cpaid+83%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5738…5ca3backed Yes23c1,200$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.651947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No42c1,025$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.474050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No46c1,012$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.448625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5302…0b79backed Yes12c1,000$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a14…6d9ebacked Yes59c1,000$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.54366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x884d…1da6backed Yes10c1,000$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9002321.7%5 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+90.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes11c927.19$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.693013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63e2…5579backed Yes52c900$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x515a…de7fbacked Yes65c815.12$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.73837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked No65c765.26$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004955.1%27 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfae…7922backed Yes11c765$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.2195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5461…742fbacked Yes8c750$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+212.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes38c690.38$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.6926274.4%195 W · 67 L+45.7wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+31.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes23c655.83$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.8311726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5262…d072backed Yes43c650.93$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.93450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85e…0f89backed No77c646.03$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x363a…df44backed Yes34c600$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3962965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes44c537.88$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.08966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bad…aa78backed Yes10c500$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+126.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Yes60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2007767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes6c500$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47023411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cc5…b83abacked No43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2151233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa097…2363backed Yes11c499.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid+51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe5…ea69backed Yes18c486.98$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.472552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed No69c320$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.84564.4%29 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes63c317.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.481376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76e4…bac0backed Yes11c309.09$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.09812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes65c307.69$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.6934848.6%169 W · 179 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4085…583fbacked Yes35c292.9$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes60c291.64$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.8540643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes53c268$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1417229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Yes8c250$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2303724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19c5…511dbacked Yes10c250$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2255819%11 W · 47 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5440…edd4backed Yes11c223.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd99f…4768backed Yes45c222.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.953036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeea…c1dcbacked No72c211.13$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.971861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f06…39c7backed Yes16c200$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1683100%3 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+538.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x500e…7c9abacked Yes7c171$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.183633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08bc…068fbacked No40c160$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e7…64ddbacked No68c150$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.742176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick63cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes13c141.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.591428.6%4 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+61.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfc5…9103backed Yes56c140.07$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.63580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ef…7f89backed No37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+515.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes60c134.62$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8512025%30 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x663d…cf72backed Yes38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.58250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0258…13bfbacked No80c125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018162.4%113 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b7d4backed Yes56c120$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.61353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+79.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e9…dde0backed Yes56c118.64$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e6…d077backed Yes20c112.04$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.04683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+107.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x73a0…e33bbacked Yes37c110.81$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d2…c2d7backed Yes53c110$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x429c…cef8backed Yes27c107.41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes14c105$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.57424.3%18 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a66…5b1bbacked No69c100.02$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.512937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+23.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xacce…72e8backed No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+84.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x857a…bcbbbacked Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd255…3c50backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873030%9 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…1a20backed Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick18cpaid+178.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8616…3496backed Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece2…6ccebacked No68c95.19$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0216…05b6backed Yes11c91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+354.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x386e…3463backed Yes12c86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.684632.6%15 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf6e…e39dbacked No63c83.36$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.461872.2%13 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x79a5…ba80backed Yes68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.53650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe39d…cf30backed Yes21c71.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.43666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+82.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd22e…8eb7backed Yes57c70.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.18475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+75.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x312f…adbbbacked Yes59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6aff…d5c0backed Yes18c65.16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.72757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick30cpaid+212.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x81bc…2364backed Yes55c65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.28475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+107.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0543…b508backed No80c62.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5874…05f7backed Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.98765.5%57 W · 30 L+7.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No39c51.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5838…3636backed Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+89.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…c4e0backed Yes57c45.54$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x458d…9bc8backed Yes57c43.21$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.