Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 November 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37225a7ea9ca53f088661d7352e051dbe3a6f3d2cce570c84bd6e032512c4593
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 50,999$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…c9f5backed Yes | 13c | 4,522$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…42a0backed Yes | 9c | 4,495$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 1c | 2,739$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,466$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,083$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 2,006$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +162.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 1,914$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe480…ee6cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,578$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…0b79backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…83ffbacked Yes | 10c | 999.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 16c | 900$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 4c | 857.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 2c | 808.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 15c | 689.67$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 15c | 520$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 7c | 513.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +83%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bad…aa78backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…2363backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x857a…bcbbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…1a20backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 18cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 November 17-23?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.