Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 November 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fc8a5359508aa14ed374715b0d5916d8297208425dc99987690255e86343a0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a92…071ebacked Yes | 69c | 10,487$7,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,233.61 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +9.0wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked No | 43c | 9,690$4,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,170.5 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 15c | 7,499$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.78 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed Yes | 66c | 6,408$4,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,178.72 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 35c | 3,487$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.12 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 24c | 3,261$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.09 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 55c | 3,000$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 72c | 2,391$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.03 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cc…cdcebacked Yes | 80c | 1,691$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…a72abacked Yes | 79c | 1,539$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 76c | 1,347$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.18 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…8d07backed Yes | 58c | 209.28$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747b…f422backed Yes | 63c | 200.08$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Yes | 73c | 192$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed No | 56c | 160.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeea…c1dcbacked No | 28c | 141.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 19c | 124$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 113.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99e0…6a83backed Yes | 78c | 103.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…5ae4backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +57%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7470…c5bcbacked Yes | 61c | 81.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 70c | 57.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3496backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048c…ce7dbacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…5b28backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…fdf1backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da2…27c7backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81d3…b479backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1594…fafebacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…e259backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…3b1cbacked Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…13e9backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x312f…adbbbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…0908backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 November 17-23?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.