Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 November 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7942096564d0ac82a0572f1b61cb14f6e4aef3c286303f68f48304ea8c8e1a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $298,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $281,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 1c | 150,995$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.77 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 7c | 19,156$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.57 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 5c | 9,851$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.01 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 1c | 7,589$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…2b7bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,123$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.63 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bd…a4b6backed Yes | 1c | 5,818$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 11c | 5,576$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.05 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 6c | 3,508$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.09 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.77 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 22c | 2,222$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.09 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…b99cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,696$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…af26backed Yes | 4c | 1,211$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x121e…40acbacked Yes | 1c | 1,203$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0921…263ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,156$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…be8cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,100$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 5c | 1,100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +83%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 72c | 859.4$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 22c | 800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…3ad5backed Yes | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…cbfdbacked Yes | 5c | 766$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa6…71cabacked Yes | 6c | 550$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9233…79aebacked Yes | 8c | 408$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 11c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed No | 80c | 300$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…6cfabacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +575.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 71c | 299.95$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…4966backed Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 24c | 106.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5262…d072backed Yes | 22c | 75.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3496backed No | 78c | 14.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 November 17-23?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.