Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e17bda328dd0611b7eeea81a0ab75b2de06ba847638886a74e1e9ea231ddf6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $260,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $253,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc999…5baabacked Yes | 0c | 32,947$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…ee68backed Yes | 23c | 30,266$6,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,946.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 6c | 18,099$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.14 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 12c | 15,244$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.88 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed No | 77c | 10,179$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 8,800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 94 | 0%0 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…19d8backed Yes | 49c | 8,225$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 74c | 6,152$4,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.12 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…7ab6backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 1c | 4,268$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,241$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…6732backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…2b7bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,185$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 1c | 2,150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 10c | 1,944$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 55c | 1,043$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.48 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf97e…da44backed No | 80c | 989.06$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 12c | 975.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.48 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…feb0backed Yes | 7c | 900$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +83%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…bf5cbacked No | 72c | 896$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…0de8backed Yes | 13c | 815.54$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…3ad5backed Yes | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…a64bbacked Yes | 23c | 799.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Yes | 20c | 738.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 18c | 733.33$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 29c | 692.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 2c | 687.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 39c | 561.73$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.76 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x121e…40acbacked Yes | 11c | 511.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…5c8abacked Yes | 7c | 429.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…5743backed Yes | 12c | 325$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 79c | 280.32$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xebe5…ea69backed Yes | 16c | 279.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa6…71cabacked Yes | 12c | 275$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebe…32fbbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5648…b52dbacked Yes | 12c | 241.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9367…83bbbacked Yes | 15c | 222.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…7677backed Yes | 47c | 221.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…cb45backed Yes | 18c | 175$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…70a1backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e0…3638backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…4966backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…2f49backed No | 80c | 110.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed2…6b67backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…c8dabacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 79c | 96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…0e2dbacked No | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 15c | 84.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeea…c1dcbacked No | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac3…df62backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…5ae4backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +57%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83e5…9751backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 43cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $94,000 November 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $108,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 17-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.