TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$469,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$473,394

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $469,763 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a7c…dafbbacked Yes16c31,819$5,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,150.78240%0 W · 24 L-6.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc228…b6c5backed Yes7c19,152$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.87185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-77.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c14,759$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.76140%0 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c10,667$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.392221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c8,999$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c7,300$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.62934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…4835backed Yes16c4,403$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed No79c4,000$3,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes2c3,700$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.25824.9%4 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae02…6d55backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-86.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa446…754ebacked Yes4c2,783$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.353225%8 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1473…9cebbacked Yes4c2,776$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a9d…413ebacked Yes8c2,411$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203170%0 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c2,256$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.932324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc1…5086backed Yes4c2,246$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba9…baeabacked Yes4c2,234$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes2c2,180$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.39956.3%6 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes7c2,030$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.646320.6%13 W · 50 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa589…f8ecbacked Yes4c1,760$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb23b…c4a1backed Yes4c1,729$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd3…98efbacked Yes1c1,696$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6717…a94ebacked Yes4c1,629$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab59…9c0ebacked Yes7c1,514$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.771414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-29.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes16c1,500$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.79296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…f725backed Yes4c1,467$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes5c1,445$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.321884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes4c1,435$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.365617.9%10 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0087…fdfdbacked Yes3c1,376$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5985…a7e6backed Yes3c1,371$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b4e…6e86backed Yes9c1,132$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0d…5c6bbacked Yes4c1,071$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a9…5958backed Yes4c1,042$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3e6c…1a13backed Yes3c1,015$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9d…f3babacked Yes3c1,015$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8454…4b7bbacked Yes4c1,004$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0954…4e9dbacked Yes3c1,001$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2639…87a4backed Yes3c1,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd8…af91backed Yes3c1,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3390%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc4…970bbacked Yes2c1,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa772…49e6backed Yes2c1,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee3…02d5backed Yes4c995$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e09…d448backed Yes2c980$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc93…cd26backed Yes4c931$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ab6…6129backed Yes4c930$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ba…b6b1backed Yes3c889.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes8c885.08$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.826413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes5c857.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1421228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd7f…dbd1backed Yes4c827$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c805.18$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.011,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a94…8f9dbacked Yes5c746$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb7…9806backed Yes5c742$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c741.89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.241212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbff…f748backed Yes4c741.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2790%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb5f…8fa7backed Yes3c740$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f0b…0772backed Yes3c740$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb677…c227backed Yes3c700$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…d72fbacked Yes5c700$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c8…f144backed Yes9c633.7$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.98120%0 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaa1e…f880backed Yes4c623$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ad6…df20backed Yes4c617$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f92…458cbacked Yes4c617$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c616.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.791306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf253…3477backed Yes5c600$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes3c600$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc18b…3917backed Yes2c569.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8510126.7%27 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4091…2572backed Yes4c549$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91a9…2728backed Yes4c549$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf37a…2171backed Yes7c543.75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae38…90c7backed Yes4c540$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d74…7a3ebacked Yes4c540$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc09…9b9abacked Yes7c518.96$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.24270%0 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa62b…77d3backed Yes3c515$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa463…7089backed Yes4c510$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a69…05e5backed Yes4c509$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aba…a21ebacked Yes3c504.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa391…efd8backed Yes4c500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205747.4%27 W · 30 L+13.8wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+54.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x098d…84cebacked Yes4c500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a59…fc06backed Yes3c496$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5044…eb3dbacked Yes4c474$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes6c462.64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.685635.7%20 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-10.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8677…9296backed Yes22c459.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0640…f43cbacked Yes4c459$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed5a…441bbacked Yes4c457$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3f0…9501backed Yes4c451.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa973…9c96backed Yes12c450$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06b8…b8ebbacked Yes4c447.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588e…3b83backed Yes4c425$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc445…9427backed Yes4c425$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes9c421.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.96446.8%3 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-84.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4997…56edbacked Yes12c415.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd900…3261backed Yes7c410.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bb…5e61backed Yes4c393$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4abd…e354backed Yes8c387.5$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9244…ee87backed Yes4c377$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0493…c1eabacked Yes4c370.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65f8…b67dbacked Yes4c366$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9008…f3cebacked Yes6c361.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.44175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-77%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecb7…43e2backed Yes4c360$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x845d…957fbacked Yes4c356$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.