TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$468,607
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$434,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $468,607 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd600…b66ebacked Yes1c11,792$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc18b…3917backed Yes2c9,833$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.2210126.7%27 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes8c8,639$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.9430238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5543…8d64backed Yes12c5,408$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.412722.2%6 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+65.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae2e…db7ebacked Yes1c4,783$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1582…e7d0backed Yes10c3,761$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes1c3,562$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7629236.3%106 W · 186 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7365…11d2backed Yes8c3,446$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd97d…b5bbbacked Yes10c3,330$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d5…dd66backed Yes10c3,323$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcea1…fbd6backed Yes8c3,313$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd57…fc80backed Yes8c3,007$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a43…2cb3backed Yes8c2,831$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2e…41f7backed Yes5c2,800$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.432010%2 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-46.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d9…ed16backed Yes9c2,636$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd92a…9900backed Yes10c2,631$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b4a…d3b1backed Yes10c2,599$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ef…fd4fbacked Yes9c2,539$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8714…4faabacked Yes7c2,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.193743.2%16 W · 21 L+10.6wins+0.29per pick15cpaid+113.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2c86…3979backed Yes10c2,493$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4233…2e25backed Yes10c2,393$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c2,392$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.211,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a4…ee62backed Yes9c2,276$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b97…1a9fbacked Yes9c2,204$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd21…d46abacked Yes9c2,117$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c58…8f38backed Yes8c2,101$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c2,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x133f…738ebacked Yes9c2,087$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d75…7fb4backed Yes9c2,086$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa709…992abacked Yes8c2,079$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764c…f874backed Yes9c2,041$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3213…776abacked Yes9c2,015$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29e6…abffbacked Yes10c2,005$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a87…c53cbacked Yes9c2,002$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2d3…a152backed Yes9c2,002$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6089…5acbbacked Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1290%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7655…1fa8backed Yes6c1,915$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.932920.7%6 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a2…6c09backed Yes10c1,914$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7242…a72dbacked Yes9c1,877$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0764…eb04backed Yes8c1,844$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1275…8b50backed Yes5c1,795$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x896e…ad85backed Yes1c1,763$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes7c1,761$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.074420.5%9 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c1,736$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.942934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe995…06b7backed Yes2c1,718$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.85425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…7aefbacked Yes9c1,702$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45bf…3456backed Yes10c1,610$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,598$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.382221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc092…5760backed Yes9c1,578$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7172…102abacked Yes2c1,562$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75c5…1ae6backed Yes8c1,536$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb6c…8b5fbacked Yes9c1,521$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes5c1,516$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.016320.6%13 W · 50 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e0d…f91dbacked Yes9c1,482$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes4c1,455$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.425617.9%10 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2735…39e3backed Yes9c1,442$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ca…238cbacked Yes8c1,425$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ba…0d17backed Yes9c1,423$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a59…fc06backed Yes8c1,396$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc62b…2838backed Yes9c1,366$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes5c1,357$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.071884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6b…087cbacked Yes9c1,356$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ba6…6415backed Yes9c1,344$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…0efabacked Yes20c1,278$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+56.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfca…9722backed Yes4c1,272$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.93650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe4e…5c37backed Yes9c1,218$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked Yes4c1,200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.172138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f7a…c5c5backed Yes10c1,198$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x153a…93a4backed Yes10c1,196$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe328…2d0dbacked Yes9c1,193$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa5…e01bbacked Yes8c1,188$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+57.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7263…d939backed Yes9c1,174$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba4…6fc4backed Yes7c1,131$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.62633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+131.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes3c1,115$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.55425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+142.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5898…211cbacked Yes2c1,112$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.09119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-69.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf75…5e8dbacked Yes8c1,050$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes2c1,040$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5119923.1%46 W · 153 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f12…50a9backed Yes10c1,035$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c65…942cbacked Yes9c1,021$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd1e…8d24backed Yes2c1,019$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.493036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf541…20c1backed Yes8c1,019$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes2c1,011$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.651246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd475…438fbacked Yes10c1,008$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x567d…a00bbacked Yes9c999$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1686…712dbacked Yes8c997$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41dc…a070backed Yes9c995$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f5…732ebacked Yes8c979$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d76…06ecbacked Yes1c976.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe543…edd1backed Yes10c954$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x978d…f39abacked Yes11c951$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0607…d9f3backed Yes9c921$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde2c…1bb3backed Yes8c919$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5044…eb3dbacked Yes11c914$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaac7…506cbacked Yes11c888$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd581…4fd1backed Yes10c886$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa9d…d9babacked Yes6c878.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501952.6%10 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+48.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfff8…ff7ebacked Yes8c871$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe188…2e71backed Yes10c870$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c99…8260backed Yes8c849$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6490…29f5backed Yes9c844$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.