Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5742a3dd64d6f6ad0ffd760993a2080140876dbaeb44543de411dbf8943c9d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,514$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed No | 58c | 1,344$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.46 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 49c | 1,117$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.68 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…9d54backed Yes | 2c | 1,002$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf179…fd27backed Yes | 6c | 846.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d3…d32dbacked Yes | 3c | 740.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 10c | 737.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 568.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 502.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 482.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 6c | 438.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…9977backed Yes | 55c | 399.96$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…0591backed Yes | 6c | 334.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 62c | 329.07$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.68 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…7d38backed Yes | 16c | 290$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 14c | 251.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…18dcbacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1c…ca4dbacked Yes | 18c | 230$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d4…bce8backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…64f5backed Yes | 15c | 134.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 130.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…c11abacked No | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed No | 41c | 103.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed Yes | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 20c | 82.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…a76dbacked Yes | 30c | 67.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…a11fbacked No | 80c | 40.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a1…11e4backed Yes | 57c | 34.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf1…d1b2backed No | 48c | 33.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 50c | 29.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy)this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.