TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$421,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$457,788

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,616 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 547 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x714b…6c2fbacked Yes15c20,230$3,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,151.462100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+419.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed No33c11,257$3,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,717.592924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+145.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed No76c10,485$7,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,979.486848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0bf…84c7backed Yes22c9,957$2,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,762.711266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+116.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked No69c8,814$6,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,078.647131%22 W · 49 L-10.0wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-46.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked Yes35c8,391$2,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,446.133666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x504d…dae8backed No56c7,681$4,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,302.04757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick70cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe222…b4cbbacked No59c5,690$3,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,342.544332.6%14 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked No37c5,654$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.9411736.8%43 W · 74 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e2c…bd51backed No61c5,230$3,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,173.144360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdba…36c4backed No64c5,071$3,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,235.5560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked No59c4,001$2,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,354.83842.1%16 W · 22 L-7.3wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-37.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes37c3,615$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,292.7430238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes34c3,573$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,367.114420.5%9 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x943c…1d17backed No67c3,297$2,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,221.471323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.30per pick53cpaid-64.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x3b00…d78bbacked No53c3,293$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,734.72060%12 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3838…2c6fbacked No77c3,260$2,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.4740%0 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x294d…b362backed No58c3,253$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,884.021861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+90%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes30c3,239$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,269.9234534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes36c3,175$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,019.386320.6%13 W · 50 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No15c2,948$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.4827322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No63c2,812$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.0593840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b7e…23ebbacked No66c2,781$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.71955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick70cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No45c2,716$1,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,230.483030%9 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913d…1508backed Yes23c2,662$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.59742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+112.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8f3…16b3backed No70c2,656$1,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1e…8d24backed Yes74c2,627$1,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.883036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes49c2,625$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.616041.7%25 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+161.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9aea…b686backed Yes37c2,500$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,564.992450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ba…c0eebacked Yes19c2,472$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,995.38475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+137.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce71…d5f6backed Yes50c2,282$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.661963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5cfb…bcb8backed Yes32c2,161$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.912100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+132.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No6c2,152$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.3323323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa56…4967backed No54c2,021$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0901020%2 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-57.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51d7…238cbacked Yes45c2,000$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1043100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+167%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f2a…984dbacked No32c1,861$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6d…0162backed Yes24c1,822$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+86.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5caa…953fbacked No71c1,723$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.57887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick73cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba0d…dd6bbacked No30c1,716$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a32…0188backed No62c1,700$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No67c1,667$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.546267.7%42 W · 20 L+13.6wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+51.6%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes66c1,594$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.761241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x709f…3115backed Yes29c1,571$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+155.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes61c1,544$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.44639.1%18 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Yes80c1,500$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.58966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+86.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No38c1,435$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.2524126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77da…2fd2backed No70c1,403$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.721643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-36.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Yes32c1,347$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+48.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Yes45c1,324$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.53475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+63.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes23c1,318$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.0412538.4%48 W · 77 L+11.5wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…30abbacked No37c1,308$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.5140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa898…71c1backed No7c1,293$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.471816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No50c1,266$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.2630839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No69c1,250$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.372356.5%13 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes39c1,221$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.162313%3 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No61c1,199$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.144440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0c9e…352abacked No75c1,179$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$882.821833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef8e…7465backed Yes68c1,164$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b57…20b1backed No50c1,142$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.051747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc11…79a3backed No70c1,100$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c12…748fbacked No78c1,090$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.14825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-66.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes60c1,083$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.691323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafce…c2f6backed No75c1,022$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.331926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-41.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc553…07f3backed No37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-73.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed No39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3901233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff16…7511backed No60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002650%13 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed No80c999.96$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.974136.6%15 W · 26 L-6.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc786…f62ebacked No62c984.5$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.391435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed No75c975.24$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.316346%29 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-2.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dc4…6770backed No74c969.71$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.534951%25 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2aa1…1ea8backed Yes75c959.91$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1615…8f2bbacked No31c950$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.574447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14d7…ffcabacked No64c945$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7563…ec98backed Yes36c945$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d88…d5e8backed No80c944.5$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.1366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9d…d9babacked Yes32c921.39$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.541952.6%10 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+48.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc97b…47e5backed Yes40c903.32$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.611855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…1399backed No34c895.15$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.34812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-81%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Yes58c894.77$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.662050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+61.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc405…4affbacked No42c887.33$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.191250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed No59c834$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x665c…c435backed Yes19c826.44$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.23633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes27c800$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58215446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No2c800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed Yes29c799.16$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.46933.3%23 W · 46 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No40c788.04$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.3721228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2e…41f7backed Yes18c780$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.752010%2 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-46.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dcf…950ebacked No8c777.79$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.96488.3%4 W · 44 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes39c775.45$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.729747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes25c773.21$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.671346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick27cpaid+52.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e84…8e88backed No78c766.99$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.61862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick72cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6d…0ad1backed No40c754.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x743d…f77ebacked No67c726.23$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.173661.1%22 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd78a…9d89backed No62c725.28$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.981050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe538…e2e1backed No68c718.96$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.4250%0 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed No9c709.28$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.841246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c704.91$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.7430718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked No72c703.11$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.561844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+154.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d4…92f5backed Yes20c700$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.062100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+342.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8f5…a937backed Yes71c700$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.