Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a5a60f6fd16bf2713bddbfdd483e2978895ac19d9ca3017dbf278992a6f5810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $518,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $438,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $518,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7c…dafbbacked Yes | 15c | 63,425$9,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,704.85 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -6.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…6d55backed Yes | 0c | 50,541$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 41,150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 39,940$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa740…1b55backed Yes | 9c | 5,362$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…af12backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 0c | 4,794$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,752$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 3,796$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.13 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…413ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,902$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 3c | 2,359$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,326$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 8c | 1,855$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.46 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,804$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 3c | 1,182$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,131$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 1,109$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…caf1backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc8…0e3dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,002$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3c…8f6dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,001$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…7ad9backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9946…0a40backed Yes | 1c | 998$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…cdd6backed Yes | 2c | 998$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…bb69backed Yes | 18c | 947.1$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb723…7ae0backed Yes | 10c | 900$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…84d7backed Yes | 12c | 841.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…81ccbacked Yes | 9c | 801.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 5c | 796.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 3c | 783.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 7c | 763.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 2c | 667.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 647.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 7c | 605$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 3c | 601.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…9469backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…e672backed Yes | 7c | 528.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 8c | 526$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…b6c5backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 383.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 5c | 370.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…fceebacked Yes | 13c | 349.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2279…bec6backed Yes | 10c | 302.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9b9abacked Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…9652backed Yes | 9c | 215.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes | 10c | 203$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…f265backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba7…139cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2d…1dc7backed Yes | 14c | 111$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy)No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.