Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa12b90437f45f6d1e2224ec9afa76472eb2bf981d7391fed4a49d6e6c8506471
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $437,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $446,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $437,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 18,614$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 14,265$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 11,687$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 10,207$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb145…4a26backed Yes | 2c | 8,000$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…413ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,255$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.71 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,681$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a1…2113backed Yes | 2c | 5,101$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.82 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…94bcbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cf…6f28backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 3,540$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 5c | 3,022$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.56 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4566…f265backed Yes | 8c | 2,695$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…dafbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,536$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.31 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -6.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 1c | 1,932$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf0…683cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,755$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…3808backed Yes | 6c | 1,679$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +149%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…69c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,646$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba6…b40bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,645$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7072…62dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,624$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 2c | 1,563$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 3c | 1,460$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,422$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,403$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,344$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,241$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b15…ae86backed Yes | 2c | 1,230$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…1cf7backed Yes | 1c | 1,010$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6893…5905backed Yes | 2c | 1,009$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac09…5941backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…e462backed Yes | 2c | 994$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a61…aa9dbacked Yes | 1c | 990$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ee…6490backed Yes | 1c | 990$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…a19abacked Yes | 1c | 985$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3c…8f6dbacked Yes | 1c | 980$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7263…d939backed Yes | 2c | 972$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6f…c1efbacked Yes | 1c | 960$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…5a7bbacked Yes | 2c | 882$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6613…ae99backed Yes | 3c | 880.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44db…ad80backed Yes | 2c | 867$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…c316backed Yes | 5c | 863.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 761.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb364…d438backed Yes | 2c | 759$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…7c14backed Yes | 2c | 727$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 702$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c5…edf9backed Yes | 2c | 700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…0747backed Yes | 2c | 700$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 3c | 689.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…441bbacked Yes | 2c | 654$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…ed6abacked Yes | 2c | 641$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…e672backed Yes | 6c | 636.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…61a5backed Yes | 2c | 604$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ef…3413backed Yes | 3c | 579$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf7…f1febacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94be…29bebacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a0…f9fdbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9b9abacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…b6c5backed Yes | 5c | 389.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a4…dbadbacked Yes | 3c | 315.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…4835backed Yes | 7c | 296.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1f…1cdabacked Yes | 6c | 278.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 4c | 272.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…d4a5backed Yes | 4c | 272.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…d9d2backed Yes | 5c | 250.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy)No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.