Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbc9cc1b62919e62c926885df9f159f131ea8ebbb3e8e5d9f57fca16744fece8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3ca…b1d6backed No | 2c | 8,282$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac9…8d3fbacked No | 2c | 3,354$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 14c | 1,893$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…d725backed No | 26c | 1,664$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69a8…4280backed No | 18c | 1,487$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 75c | 1,443$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.28 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 12c | 1,283$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e5…63c8backed No | 11c | 1,013$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 6c | 717.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 77c | 715$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.6 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 3c | 566$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 11c | 554.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 27c | 507.45$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.23 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 13c | 443.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 14c | 437.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 27c | 413.22$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.57 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2731…6e32backed No | 12c | 385$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…4f84backed No | 26c | 384$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…a59fbacked No | 10c | 366.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 13c | 346$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…b17fbacked Yes | 65c | 307.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.89 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b95…a426backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 9c | 287.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1188…cd0bbacked No | 27c | 262.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 16c | 240.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd61b…10d7backed No | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511b…c8f6backed No | 15c | 203.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47d7…df89backed No | 13c | 183.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe850…ad70backed No | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 175.55$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fd…69febacked Yes | 78c | 170.2$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a1…11e4backed Yes | 73c | 163.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…d2bdbacked No | 30c | 159.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbade…5c92backed No | 25c | 156.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 22c | 128.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…76aebacked No | 13c | 105.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b5…e85ebacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb965…01d8backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x478b…53d5backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…b756backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed No | 17c | 93.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d88…1695backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 14c | 70.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…f2f5backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe327…bc97backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd059…4bd5backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -73%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…9bd3backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc6…bb12backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of June?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy)No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.