TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,218

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes31c5,819$1,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,775.116848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x388a…e87cbacked Yes27c1,500$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.991118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes2c1,330$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.899741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No70c1,327$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.456267.7%42 W · 20 L+13.6wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+51.6%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x4573…2c90backed Yes15c1,291$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7032…6a92backed Yes33c1,144$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e28…dec5backed Yes7c920.97$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3716…238cbacked Yes10c911.16$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4590%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes5c750$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.09824.9%4 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes17c736.37$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5527322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb357…199bbacked Yes43c710.73$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-84.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No72c705.32$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.496233.9%21 W · 41 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes6c700$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.31246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f02…0b2ebacked Yes9c700$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3ad…467dbacked Yes8c643.45$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed No45c627.15$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.385151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c602.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.782934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1fd…ba6cbacked No65c533.88$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.46366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes6c510.03$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.419923.1%46 W · 153 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes50c488.41$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.7814429.9%43 W · 101 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes19c456.9$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.016346%29 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-2.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes19c416.5$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.776431.3%20 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c410.18$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3693840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0749…6de9backed Yes19c399.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae4…9cdbbacked Yes6c388.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes41c365$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.9534534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c358.4$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.611,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes19c342.55$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd925…78cabacked No54c323.43$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed Yes45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e78…1ab9backed Yes44c299.13$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.621729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-21%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…fca1backed Yes12c265.9$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.971266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+75.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa99f…b306backed No50c265$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.51747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes45c250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.52347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed No50c246.79$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.471637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d3…f160backed No54c242.5$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.98560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d44…3bc0backed No48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.332075%15 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+51.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf72d…a2e0backed Yes7c202.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77e5…d5a3backed No72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82e2…ec75backed Yes44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105050%25 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-3.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9389…711cbacked Yes44c200$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes30c194.82$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8730839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4395…5b90backed Yes43c189.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid+54.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc2…298ebacked No54c189.85$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes26c189.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.934020%8 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-46.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes43c172.51$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.515036%18 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No55c172$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.5213131.3%41 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c4d…4829backed Yes47c171.08$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.263342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa6…2fdebacked No60c162.12$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No61c161.21$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.875536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47d…2ad1backed Yes57c157.59$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes33c143$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.197131%22 W · 49 L-10.0wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-46.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x919d…f748backed No36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8910551.4%54 W · 51 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb671…32d1backed Yes59c126$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes47c120.02$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.051,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No67c120$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.623846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77ab…3a5abacked No56c120$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.81154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76d4…2a7fbacked Yes25c117.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked No53c116.02$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.533839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ed…aa53backed Yes56c113$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.283158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a1…11e4backed Yes55c108.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes59c105.47$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.77979.3%9 W · 88 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes25c105.4$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4221228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f18…353fbacked No56c101.46$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.643100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe327…bc97backed No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaad6…8b65backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-49.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5de3…8df2backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-59.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587838.5%30 W · 48 L-8.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3731…4bfabacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc556…1fc6backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0585…1de9backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes49c98.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.415724.6%14 W · 43 L-8.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-36.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1929…346bbacked Yes11c95.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.213259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e1…0e3abacked No62c94.89$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf418…b2ccbacked No66c91.58$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.583666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes47c91.54$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3135334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes29c90.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.274219%8 W · 34 L-10.8wins-0.26per pick45cpaid-57.5%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No71c90.17$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.535141.2%21 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x576f…5254backed Yes31c90.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.943935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5080…d89abacked Yes38c88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.44742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No70c85.88$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.762055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes36c80$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.839034.4%134 W · 256 L-33.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7629…6ac9backed Yes31c79.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.87450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f95…458ebacked Yes28c76.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ac…dbbabacked Yes38c74.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.13540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac9…8d3fbacked No60c71.81$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed No63c68.2$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.55650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9138…0690backed Yes46c66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.36825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35da…40b5backed No54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+41.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6b9…d8e0backed No54c55.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.56875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe28e…ac9fbacked Yes45c55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7560%0 W · 6 L-3.1wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf6b9…a41ebacked Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-67%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.918637.6%70 W · 116 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a5e…8c8bbacked Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa23…03ccbacked Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb35…88b9backed No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89f0…1e62backed Yes47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61910.5%2 W · 17 L-6.0wins-0.31per pick42cpaid-84.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x8d02…2753backed Yes58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-60.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9db0…b4a2backed No59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.