Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a280f219749e7e0ff9ac72b2f7b0166ab371f5cc96e0f0689417c769907dfe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d4…bce8backed No | 79c | 4,184$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 14c | 4,053$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.83 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 16c | 4,037$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.71 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 18c | 2,292$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,955$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.5 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 18c | 1,558$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.67 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac83…239cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,139$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…199bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,110$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 21c | 1,083$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.43 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…e915backed Yes | 2c | 835.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed No | 71c | 771.29$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.34 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Yes | 6c | 737.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 670$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 2c | 596.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…5860backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes | 12c | 431.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 18c | 388.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 385.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 5c | 379.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e78…1ab9backed Yes | 19c | 372$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 18c | 332.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 9c | 293.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 30c | 287.61$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…85b5backed Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 11c | 226.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -10.0wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x576f…5254backed Yes | 11c | 221$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35da…40b5backed No | 70c | 218.86$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 6c | 195$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…c27bbacked Yes | 10c | 170.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…4f84backed No | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 11c | 145.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ef…966fbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 133.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked No | 74c | 133$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78a…9d89backed No | 76c | 131.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4569…d9aebacked No | 74c | 125.93$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac9…8d3fbacked Yes | 18c | 122.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…da6abacked No | 70c | 117.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9b…23cabacked Yes | 14c | 112.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 18c | 109.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -6.0wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 21c | 106.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes | 17c | 104$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 21c | 104$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…1de9backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…9274backed No | 74c | 93.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…eedabacked No | 69c | 82.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb965…01d8backed Yes | 24c | 78.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 26c | 63.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 31c | 62.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 22c | 59.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e0…065abacked No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…793cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc255…62f8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -74%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ef…fe3abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 43cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 74c | 47.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…c1f5backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…57dbbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…e580backed No | 70c | 28.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked No | 74c | 26.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…c0fdbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…a684backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy)No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of June?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.