TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$137,577
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$148,860

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,577 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a8a…7699backed Yes38c12,000$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,559.98922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-64.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked No73c10,144$7,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,724.123666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No61c8,655$5,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,364.276267.7%42 W · 20 L+13.6wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+51.6%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed No66c8,546$5,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,867.976848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c7,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad7c…6244backed Yes29c6,065$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-33.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7f8f…a884backed Yes2c5,163$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac9…ca59backed Yes2c5,005$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes3c3,460$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc4…6770backed No76c3,144$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.654951%25 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x01ff…3c75backed Yes3c2,900$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872433.3%8 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+93.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x049b…5a12backed Yes1c2,138$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes66c1,919$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,271.2193840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3716…238cbacked Yes12c1,661$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4690%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes27c1,648$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.38707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x388a…e87cbacked Yes36c1,500$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5451118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,446$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.021,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed No31c1,442$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.35151%26 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes29c1,279$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.846346%29 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-2.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x326b…33ebbacked Yes9c1,209$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes14c1,082$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6927322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes1c1,032$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-92.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8853…9afebacked No51c999.99$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes5c937.3$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.231246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No76c887.82$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.665070%35 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed36…e096backed Yes57c877.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed Yes56c799.99$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.285536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes4c649.73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3819923.1%46 W · 153 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb15…1038backed No54c581.47$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.02475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+37.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd1…1798backed Yes68c542.84$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.85425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58a1…11e4backed Yes59c515.96$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3051553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick65cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c457.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.472934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…3bc0backed No44c452.31$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.312075%15 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+51.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf72d…a2e0backed Yes10c433.36$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.26728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dcf…950ebacked Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3488.3%4 W · 44 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes4c400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.01824.9%4 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c06…b98abacked Yes49c399.99$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1962425%6 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-59.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7c8e…dd59backed No51c392.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.487100%7 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe5ad…39c6backed No43c264.8$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.942347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a61…8c32backed No38c261.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.542544%11 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc330…e76ebacked No43c258.26$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.21450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0218…41aebacked No20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4027…ac7fbacked No40c249.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+111.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bde…53f3backed No43c249.47$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59ad…724cbacked Yes54c229.41$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes61c219.92$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.16979.3%9 W · 88 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c33…ab72backed Yes12c208.43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.772512%3 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-76.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c4d…4829backed Yes58c205.29$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.883342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed No43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1142825%7 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-50.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x9389…711cbacked Yes56c200$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0585…1de9backed Yes58c200$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1dc…5460backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482669.2%18 W · 8 L+4.7wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+34.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa2f4…5228backed Yes55c199.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes41c199.83$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2912348.8%60 W · 63 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdba…36c4backed No62c197.09$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.15560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No55c194.91$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.316050.6%81 W · 79 L+13.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06b5…6319backed Yes8c187.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x399d…93cfbacked No57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.44666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes21c171.43$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364143.9%18 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa17a…379dbacked Yes8c170.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919d…f748backed No21c165.51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.7510551.4%54 W · 51 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b98…e27dbacked Yes13c159.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da9…d940backed No39c155$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.55955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick28cpaid+106.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed No28c138.89$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1006651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa962…5860backed Yes27c130$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4140%0 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x08eb…9ca4backed Yes38c129.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes39c126.01$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.374020%8 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-46.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1289…42aabacked Yes55c116.8$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-58.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab5…f570backed Yes19c116.71$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.13716.2%6 W · 31 L-5.8wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes56c116$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.85036%18 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes70c115$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked Yes61c114.6$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.785724.6%14 W · 43 L-8.2wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-36.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes71c111.72$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x171b…cd92backed Yes47c108$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7630%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes43c106.24$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.511139.6%44 W · 67 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes56c106.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9820624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No56c102.62$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.396320.6%13 W · 50 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd059…4bd5backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.38per pick52cpaid-73%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c6c…998fbacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick74cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105050%25 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-3.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc18e…44e3backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d5c…b756backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+38.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c9e…9573backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaad6…8b65backed Yes72c99.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-49.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4395…5b90backed Yes57c99.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid+54.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fd8…1de3backed No53c96.8$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.371250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x909f…431abacked No61c91.48$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.68966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed Yes64c88$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.322931%9 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa99f…b306backed Yes67c88$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.61747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ad…b913backed No57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.721172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9752…8087backed No50c83.78$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.595100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3272…d738backed Yes36c83.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-40.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9c4…be5dbacked Yes54c83.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc1f…222bbacked No61c81.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b9…df93backed Yes61c81.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-64.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…eedabacked No50c81.27$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.27475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f95…458ebacked Yes37c79.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.37540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3710743%46 W · 61 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fec…b510backed No55c79.35$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe194…1cecbacked Yes79c71.43$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.431216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-63.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.