TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,851,922
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,650,545

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,851,922 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 428 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes14c173,884$24,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,704.4663835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes14c66,508$9,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,031.4535123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes75c50,000$37,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,250.519535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b62…4527backed Yes2c40,833$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.37450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc5…e175backed No59c37,999$22,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,713.118100%8 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb7b4…ea9dbacked Yes15c36,073$5,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,550.640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…4524backed No69c34,386$23,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,828.7216253.7%87 W · 75 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfcd4…84ddbacked No58c33,692$19,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,307.241471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Yes2c30,587$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.19650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes0c30,467$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8623411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes2c26,481$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.48205%1 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-80.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed No62c21,036$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,035.761376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes0c21,011$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.028625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c18,887$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.89740%0 W · 74 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf539…9483backed Yes3c18,722$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x027e…c97fbacked Yes5c18,598$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.744522.2%10 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-59.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c16,791$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1444754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc1b…63c7backed Yes16c13,440$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,125.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No69c13,133$9,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,094.657163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes5c12,818$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.893724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c12,527$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.994163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a9…1652backed No75c11,744$8,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,913.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3019…631ebacked Yes1c11,209$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33320%0 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac3…78a5backed Yes28c10,655$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9f…a025backed Yes4c9,755$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.3740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes8c9,667$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.355424.1%13 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+67.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes3c9,346$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes23c8,812$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.6758126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed No68c8,183$5,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,616.5914337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes4c8,124$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.71520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes2c7,849$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.19270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb392…fc73backed Yes44c7,346$3,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,223.764912.2%6 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd133…ef27backed Yes6c6,583$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.7970%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec83…13f7backed Yes1c6,190$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.631618.8%3 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick5cpaid+464.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes3c5,850$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.452729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90f…131ebacked Yes3c5,812$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes4c5,626$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.789824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04cd…dcccbacked Yes4c5,556$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa4…6ba3backed Yes4c5,232$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.86160%0 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8888…0b39backed Yes19c5,134$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.483234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccfe…1ed1backed Yes14c4,977$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.66922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed No68c4,951$3,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.798634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9095…96f7backed Yes11c4,700$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5172972.4%21 W · 8 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+39.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x71e2…31c4backed No54c4,646$2,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.054139%16 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes28c4,529$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.7987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes3c4,323$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.31001%1 W · 99 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-96.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c5a…df23backed Yes48c4,171$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002050%10 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8c…e77dbacked Yes6c4,000$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf394…ad79backed Yes21c3,798$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-83.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfdd…5585backed Yes3c3,776$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.13195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a13…ee8dbacked Yes17c3,554$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes5c3,250$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.5928021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x517c…7616backed Yes62c3,225$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes23c3,111$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.44650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+77.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d6f…be20backed Yes5c3,110$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.631910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-79%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes4c3,097$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.83718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-59.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes15c3,050$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.1211328.3%32 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0290…c976backed Yes3c3,038$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe626…6771backed No29c3,024$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,147.712839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8e5…c1ecbacked Yes38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe06a…a476backed Yes2c2,855$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9970%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea3…fe61backed No37c2,703$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,702.73666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes17c2,681$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.15714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-75.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a3e…3489backed Yes35c2,669$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked No32c2,563$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750.883148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e3…9188backed Yes5c2,559$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.451520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-59.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked No55c2,531$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.22755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x335c…6e62backed Yes42c2,496$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.731216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68c0…6dcbbacked No43c2,301$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3011457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c93…aafabacked Yes5c2,240$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x156d…e025backed Yes11c2,194$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.891315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bdc…e8b0backed No51c2,053$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.142356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+24.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked No52c2,010$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.423033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9ba…6a77backed Yes29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf388…7f67backed Yes40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f79…aeacbacked Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes11c2,000$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.712012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x846f…750ebacked No66c1,975$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.5613038.5%50 W · 80 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a90…d8debacked No78c1,960$1,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.79757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf55…cd0dbacked Yes26c1,955$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98a5…f3f0backed Yes3c1,774$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.65425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea29…43e3backed Yes29c1,757$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.984330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b4…6709backed Yes13c1,728$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.161233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+139.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes21c1,705$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.446613.6%9 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4343…3be2backed Yes18c1,701$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.231216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c10…df5cbacked No77c1,700$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes65c1,691$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.7120%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdab4…e253backed No60c1,664$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.921283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick69cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked Yes1c1,617$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-82.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba15…7579backed Yes13c1,566$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.345442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8933…1b75backed Yes65c1,538$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a2…c9b7backed Yes40c1,474$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.221631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa872…c2f0backed Yes15c1,424$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.870%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeee8…7e06backed No74c1,329$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.576940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x345e…6bc7backed Yes21c1,315$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.743417.6%6 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes22c1,300$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281250%0 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4c7…b8e1backed Yes5c1,276$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6418…730cbacked No66c1,274$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.081090%9 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick65cpaid+38.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.