Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c11c14664000e9a338d1b2a112d9aba06bc37c900daf52b0df4372ab32367de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,200,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $995,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,200,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4c9…a137backed Yes | 0c | 116,903$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 1c | 59,542$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -95%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f26…816cbacked Yes | 2c | 56,038$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 1c | 55,977$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.61 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7496…3962backed Yes | 1c | 51,609$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.83 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 1c | 37,080$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.04 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…e94fbacked Yes | 1c | 34,362$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.34 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…ef88backed Yes | 1c | 33,129$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.97 | 49 | 4.1%2 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 25,266$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 1c | 22,377$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.01 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…dc34backed Yes | 1c | 15,960$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 13,446$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.02 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 13,443$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06b…def9backed Yes | 1c | 12,879$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…d4c7backed Yes | 1c | 12,843$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e01…a4babacked Yes | 1c | 12,106$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 0c | 10,148$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…43a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cd…a855backed Yes | 0c | 9,400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f83…643fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…cce7backed Yes | 1c | 8,510$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…c97fbacked Yes | 2c | 8,270$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf485…f5efbacked Yes | 1c | 8,035$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 6,939$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d9…407dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,866$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…c964backed Yes | 1c | 6,255$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,076$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…ea8dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,120$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed Yes | 1c | 4,342$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 4,186$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…5723backed Yes | 2c | 3,690$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 3,312$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 1c | 3,256$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb24c…eefebacked Yes | 1c | 3,211$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,013$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…ce35backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7e…875dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…9417backed Yes | 2c | 2,298$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…d717backed Yes | 1c | 2,261$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70dd…a4e3backed Yes | 1c | 2,250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +506.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…3a81backed Yes | 1c | 2,143$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…c880backed Yes | 1c | 2,073$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 2,050$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,729$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,723$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 1c | 1,699$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…c707backed Yes | 2c | 1,571$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e3…9696backed Yes | 1c | 1,482$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…f111backed Yes | 2c | 1,205$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ee…b8bfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x963e…04a0backed Yes | 2c | 1,098$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…042bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…25e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb1…3cacbacked Yes | 2c | 937.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…85cfbacked Yes | 2c | 687.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.