TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$751,688
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$864,228

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $751,688 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c41,629$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.124754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x955a…3cd3backed Yes10c30,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9980%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a13…ee8dbacked Yes3c23,663$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes1c18,543$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb392…fc73backed Yes6c15,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9004912.2%6 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes6c12,387$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.3135123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f9f…a025backed Yes1c10,748$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b2…b87dbacked Yes6c10,666$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.96160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes3c10,447$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.3411720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ec…d630backed Yes2c10,227$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.84729.7%7 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-76%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes14c10,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40010313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f0…fcc4backed Yes1c9,836$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes4c9,814$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.3728113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31bd…5564backed Yes11c8,784$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.16714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-79.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c8,698$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.39740%0 W · 74 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7105…b9bbbacked Yes2c8,459$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x156d…e025backed Yes19c8,304$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.71315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdfdd…5585backed Yes2c7,283$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90f…131ebacked Yes1c6,834$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes3c6,455$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.7123411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0d7…1314backed Yes1c5,690$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-55.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3090%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes9c4,918$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes1c4,661$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.853915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid+30.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6452…30a1backed Yes3c3,533$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59bb…6d65backed Yes8c3,235$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265456.7%3 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-89.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x027e…c97fbacked Yes5c3,216$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.364522.2%10 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-59.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06dc…4524backed Yes6c3,082$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.1116253.7%87 W · 75 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66ef…dd2fbacked Yes1c2,824$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.67911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-55.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes7c2,714$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1904422.7%10 W · 34 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c15…cc6bbacked Yes12c2,700$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa248…3618backed Yes1c2,649$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865c…6f3bbacked Yes3c2,320$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.19425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1383…0516backed Yes10c2,308$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.062825%7 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+526.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes4c2,200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.512012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c2,062$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.759824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a8f…f082backed Yes1c2,036$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1270%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5449…992bbacked Yes1c2,017$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-83.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf55…cd0dbacked Yes2c2,002$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50b6…9272backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+114%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f83…643fbacked Yes1c2,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c1,966$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.64163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a1…378abacked Yes3c1,946$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c1,868$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.821970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbafb…c3b0backed Yes1c1,834$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8d…299cbacked Yes10c1,667$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.74047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x610d…188bbacked Yes6c1,667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68d8…ce04backed Yes2c1,500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.570%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b90…efc9backed Yes13c1,203$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1521216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-49.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4912…633bbacked Yes1c1,174$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes10c1,126$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.246613.6%9 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef0…4806backed Yes11c1,055$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.821216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-66.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7875…e0efbacked Yes15c1,005$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.743240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d34…dfb5backed Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…62a4backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003215.6%5 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes11c1,000$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1147020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb24c…eefebacked Yes5c999.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140250%0 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes6c905.95$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0811328.3%32 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe983…093abacked Yes8c896.03$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.161428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf040…b3bfbacked Yes6c867$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.02180%0 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8888…0b39backed Yes8c672$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.763234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7820…5723backed Yes3c672$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.823514.3%5 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ac…d254backed Yes3c667.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211520%3 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c651.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.211,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes11c640.94$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3758126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a5…56cbbacked Yes9c600$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543613.9%5 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e9c…c878backed Yes5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21a6…7442backed Yes4c562.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.14714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-80.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66dc…308fbacked Yes17c544.04$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1150%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick3cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f26…0880backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa406…bd18backed Yes8c310$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes8c300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7d…035ebacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3563…0cebbacked Yes7c300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-76.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7850…6c18backed Yes19c223.82$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431612.5%2 W · 14 L-5.4wins-0.34per pick46cpaid-80.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2503…9be5backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2280%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…9ac4backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc4…6770backed Yes6c199.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211244.6%50 W · 62 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x396d…8247backed Yes7c163.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.06825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2775…e796backed Yes12c129.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a7e…4a57backed Yes15c100.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe948…ecc7backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcea0…bf6dbacked Yes17c88.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.