Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13dae092813125bf5e892a59dac2154e0fdb6aff600a3996ed0ab3b07d68e683
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $936,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $848,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $936,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f28…1ceebacked Yes | 1c | 100,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 2c | 99,192$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.79 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -95%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 2c | 85,764$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,563.89 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…ef88backed Yes | 1c | 36,303$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.99 | 49 | 4.1%2 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f26…816cbacked Yes | 3c | 35,836$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 3c | 33,350$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.48 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…c97fbacked Yes | 2c | 29,624$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.94 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 29,383$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed Yes | 1c | 19,693$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.11 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 9,960$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.27 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…3a81backed Yes | 2c | 9,646$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.16 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c2…a274backed Yes | 1c | 7,453$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e01…a4babacked Yes | 1c | 7,385$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc13d…3588backed Yes | 0c | 7,275$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…c750backed Yes | 1c | 5,750$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…9265backed Yes | 1c | 5,077$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 2c | 4,922$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.96 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…cce7backed Yes | 2c | 4,668$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 4,606$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…52c4backed Yes | 2c | 4,274$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +842%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,099$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaab…d63fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,784$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…c707backed Yes | 2c | 3,422$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 1c | 3,344$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe6…23c1backed Yes | 1c | 3,323$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…ac62backed Yes | 2c | 3,163$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…ce35backed Yes | 2c | 3,149$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf77…202bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,999$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 2,764$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…3476backed Yes | 1c | 2,600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7e…875dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,215$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,137$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2e…8968backed Yes | 2c | 1,918$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…d717backed Yes | 2c | 1,801$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…3011backed Yes | 1c | 1,767$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 1c | 1,566$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…c964backed Yes | 3c | 1,559$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9c…c878backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed Yes | 2c | 1,445$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…5723backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba4…6977backed Yes | 1c | 1,376$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,290$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Yes | 2c | 1,288$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…4dc9backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,076$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…c4b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,045$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4415…ba48backed Yes | 2c | 1,017$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f83…643fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x826b…e873backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb962…45febacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3521…b046backed Yes | 2c | 977.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…2c2abacked Yes | 2c | 881.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…35d5backed Yes | 2c | 875.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b822backed Yes | 2c | 835.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e3…9696backed Yes | 3c | 739.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa107…14febacked Yes | 2c | 733.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 3c | 713.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…537bbacked Yes | 2c | 710$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a5…eb20backed Yes | 2c | 616.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8414…8c9cbacked Yes | 2c | 578.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd9…d5aabacked Yes | 2c | 555.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f69…69c5backed Yes | 2c | 521$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…ef81backed Yes | 2c | 468$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 3cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a1…e5b0backed Yes | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.