TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,139,483
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,013,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,139,483 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x76ec…d630backed Yes0c93,127$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.86729.7%7 W · 65 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-76%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ff…96babacked Yes0c61,654$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.81166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…5ea7backed Yes2c38,474$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.16175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid+15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8476…5418backed Yes0c37,984$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437b…6e7dbacked Yes0c31,210$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x955a…3cd3backed Yes18c30,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.9880%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes2c28,352$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.06205%1 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-80.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c26,382$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.524754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c24,878$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.57740%0 W · 74 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe002…7813backed Yes15c22,996$3,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,388.84425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-52.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c18,080$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.879824.5%24 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a13…ee8dbacked Yes4c14,428$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4343…3be2backed Yes3c12,832$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.411216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c11,094$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.844163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes1c10,053$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.533724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70010313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes0c9,962$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6528113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes1c9,792$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cf3…7be2backed Yes2c8,966$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes2c8,532$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.8335123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b2…b87dbacked Yes4c8,222$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.66160%0 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes0c7,964$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.933718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-59.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f4…8e52backed Yes1c7,217$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3670%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90f…131ebacked Yes1c6,797$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997d…5d15backed Yes1c6,230$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9f…a025backed Yes1c5,969$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f2c…e130backed Yes0c5,878$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3850%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes14c5,693$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.4528021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f0…fcc4backed Yes1c5,372$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes5c5,249$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.6211720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3592…c68cbacked Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbafb…c3b0backed Yes1c4,036$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…4524backed Yes5c3,970$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0916253.7%87 W · 75 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x59bb…6d65backed Yes7c3,894$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288456.7%3 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-89.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6b4…6709backed Yes5c3,561$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.511233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+139.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7105…b9bbbacked Yes3c3,448$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes1c3,442$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac3…5572backed Yes3c3,216$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes1c3,095$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20402.5%1 W · 39 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes3c3,022$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1383…0516backed Yes21c2,909$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.872825%7 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+526.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4c15…cc6bbacked Yes14c2,594$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.35195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes11c2,500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2753925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-49.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8c…e77dbacked Yes1c2,479$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…68a0backed Yes18c2,311$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f83…643fbacked Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b6…9272backed Yes7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+114%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c1…bdb9backed No79c1,664$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.53935.9%14 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x275a…a8f6backed Yes1c1,600$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes12c1,417$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1704422.7%10 W · 34 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb78d…835dbacked No79c1,400$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3002755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…9a43backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes19c1,213$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.357020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes3c1,193$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.223915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid+30.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d34…dfb5backed Yes27c1,132$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd28f…375abacked Yes3c1,003$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.84100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…c7bdbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502556%14 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes3c1,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.53438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf00e…4733backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdba4…6977backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes12c999.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120250%0 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ba7…3ad3backed Yes14c999.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba15…7579backed Yes3c977.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.415442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7875…e0efbacked Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd03b…042bbacked Yes26c769.78$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.033740.5%15 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes26c699.99$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1818619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59ed…7d8dbacked Yes2c694.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes10c672.5$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7511328.3%32 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes13c639.96$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.219535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b90…efc9backed Yes24c633.69$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.991216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-49.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68d8…ce04backed Yes5c599.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c92…c646backed Yes17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cd1…8af7backed Yes9c582.16$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.11185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-90.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa705…8998backed Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd479…0486backed Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6995…99f9backed No76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1203281.3%26 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick71cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes15c498.48$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7558126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed Yes19c470$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.36543.1%28 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x993b…dedabacked Yes17c424.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.45119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick30cpaid-72.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes12c386$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.626613.6%9 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x124f…0deabacked Yes12c375$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb462…fc89backed No75c370$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.51163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ef…dd2fbacked Yes12c307.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-55.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x818e…a1e3backed Yes10c300$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-69.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe0c…0edabacked Yes4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3360%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66a5…56cbbacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453613.9%5 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd800…c256backed Yes30c269.95$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.812657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x895b…eaf7backed Yes15c266.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x396d…8247backed Yes13c234.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.76825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7850…6c18backed Yes29c224.14$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651612.5%2 W · 14 L-5.4wins-0.34per pick46cpaid-80.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x75cc…9ac4backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No80c187.56$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5621651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x404a…575dbacked No77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7abb…46f9backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6997…ceb6backed Yes28c108.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+65.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb988…2655backed Yes10c105.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.