Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6299eef8d24d10e7feef439af31f54b2051a7630b02ecc7e466d8675d917a29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 17c | 9,584$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,641.91 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 16c | 8,603$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.06 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed No | 20c | 5,501$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.13 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…01b7backed No | 14c | 4,653$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.18 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 24c | 4,120$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.93 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e2…31c4backed No | 9c | 3,249$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.48 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed No | 16c | 3,216$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.23 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,880$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 73c | 2,800$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.08 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 1,948$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.65 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…e01bbacked No | 10c | 1,921$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.32 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 26c | 1,855$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.01 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked No | 13c | 1,662$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.33 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…89d3backed No | 23c | 1,500$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed No | 13c | 1,477$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.53 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…108dbacked Yes | 74c | 1,355$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed No | 20c | 1,347$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.64 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…2212backed No | 13c | 1,192$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…af8bbacked Yes | 74c | 1,005$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.46 | 140 | 75.7%106 W · 34 L | +17.6wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed Yes | 78c | 1,000$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 6.5%3 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…299cbacked No | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…bfd9backed No | 25c | 999.98$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 27c | 900$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…3f79backed Yes | 72c | 690$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6861…cf22backed No | 20c | 599.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 4c | 598.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed No | 18c | 572.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd3…d916backed No | 24c | 559.51$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 78c | 549.97$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.76 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 20c | 522.45$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.69 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…6d1ebacked No | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…3011backed No | 11c | 491.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c3…25adbacked No | 25c | 486.36$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 2c | 476.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffc…d342backed Yes | 80c | 470$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…f871backed Yes | 74c | 407.47$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c0…6dcbbacked No | 25c | 404.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…db6cbacked No | 24c | 393.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26fa…e961backed Yes | 74c | 336.3$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d9…23f3backed No | 23c | 308.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed No | 24c | 298.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…4527backed Yes | 71c | 280.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0745…4a1bbacked No | 27c | 244.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 21c | 241.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 79c | 221.14$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c6…e5fcbacked No | 10c | 209.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed No | 18c | 203.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0a…f5fbbacked No | 25c | 203.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21fc…de4abacked No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…ce35backed No | 13c | 185.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…bb98backed No | 16c | 160.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed No | 19c | 157.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218d…5cc4backed No | 19c | 129.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…e838backed No | 20c | 111.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f2…ee29backed Yes | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…c377backed No | 20c | 102$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +5.9wins | +0.23per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8b…90fdbacked No | 17c | 87.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…8693backed No | 23c | 85.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb465…f139backed No | 23c | 77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b1…af25backed No | 23c | 70.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaead…aa6abacked Yes | 71c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae8…bfc8backed Yes | 76c | 65.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b8…4710backed Yes | 71c | 56.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb610…c0eabacked No | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afc…5bc2backed Yes | 71c | 46.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065c…47debacked Yes | 78c | 42.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…ed66backed Yes | 72c | 33.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28a…d474backed Yes | 80c | 31.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…7076backed Yes | 77c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62f1…3efebacked Yes | 73c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…da0cbacked Yes | 76c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…620dbacked Yes | 77c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef1…74a0backed Yes | 73c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in July?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.