Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d64a1533a7d69055205382f1f37d5e0057b5fc40c75ee36df30438b1b0992e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $950,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,069,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $950,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c98…ef88backed Yes | 1c | 103,577$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.12 | 49 | 4.1%2 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaab…d63fbacked Yes | 1c | 49,572$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 38,271$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 1c | 30,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…72e5backed Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e01…a4babacked Yes | 1c | 18,990$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 17,109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 1c | 16,938$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…c97fbacked Yes | 1c | 14,653$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.56 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c0…b1ccbacked Yes | 1c | 14,390$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06b…def9backed Yes | 1c | 13,014$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…259abacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,568$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…cce7backed Yes | 1c | 10,399$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc06a…29f7backed Yes | 1c | 9,995$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4415…ba48backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e7…06c1backed Yes | 1c | 5,556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…3a81backed Yes | 1c | 5,474$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 5,261$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…08afbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb0…035ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,887$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…57e3backed Yes | 1c | 4,676$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…042bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,184$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,975$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,563$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…c880backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…b5c2backed Yes | 1c | 2,623$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…9265backed Yes | 1c | 2,564$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…4dc9backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb962…45febacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…e130backed Yes | 1c | 1,786$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…019ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,778$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7496…3962backed Yes | 2c | 1,326$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…4458backed Yes | 1c | 1,299$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x626e…fa46backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…e838backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.