Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec540d631a88397ca01a17e48193019b4d680fde10087a38d5c8467bfaae18c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $365,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $382,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $365,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x955a…3cd3backed Yes | 3c | 69,999$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 7,554$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…d144backed Yes | 2c | 6,869$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.11 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…c97fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,660$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 6,582$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.93 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…9920backed Yes | 3c | 6,102$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,418$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,397$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4e…ba10backed Yes | 2c | 5,349$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f83…643fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…6d65backed Yes | 2c | 4,787$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.52 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…a619backed Yes | 1c | 4,046$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,883$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e01…a4babacked Yes | 3c | 3,147$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939c…ad45backed Yes | 6c | 3,070$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaab…d63fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,026$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02c…da7abacked Yes | 2c | 2,967$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 4c | 2,428$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…c9b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes | 3c | 1,608$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8f…f082backed Yes | 1c | 1,342$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…2139backed Yes | 2c | 1,281$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 1,182$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,141$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a0…e208backed Yes | 3c | 1,072$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,057$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a0…a872backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…a600backed Yes | 2c | 940.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…7a72backed Yes | 2c | 642.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 2c | 600.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc4…b4f2backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb794…3c6dbacked Yes | 4c | 332.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.