TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,688,841
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,496,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,688,841 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 398 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes10c192,494$19,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,313.44520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-31.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes20c168,395$34,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,384.1563835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes10c37,008$3,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8213836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe157…51ebbacked Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%0 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Yes6c27,764$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed No74c26,900$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,900.291376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabea…ffa8backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b62…4527backed Yes7c23,968$1,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,779.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd104…acefbacked Yes11c23,647$2,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,601.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+38.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes14c19,709$2,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.125424.1%13 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+67.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x890d…c369backed Yes7c19,341$1,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,353.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c11…c7e6backed Yes76c16,706$12,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,703.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b4…ea9dbacked Yes12c15,722$1,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,875.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3832…1527backed Yes1c14,300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.77333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8869…c975backed Yes2c13,833$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.821010%1 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes58c12,360$7,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,195.2819535.4%69 W · 126 L-13.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes9c12,241$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.6228113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked No52c12,000$6,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7602070%14 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+28.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xff03…2a65backed Yes1c11,986$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes7c11,111$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9207…82c0backed Yes31c10,974$3,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,410.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes25c9,508$2,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,338.1987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes5c8,238$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.54180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c7,677$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.024754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x345e…6bc7backed Yes25c7,275$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.913417.6%6 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf25…3b7fbacked Yes64c7,000$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4801450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes11c6,897$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.941001%1 W · 99 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-96.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8888…0b39backed Yes22c6,718$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.23234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…951bbacked Yes11c6,537$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes8c5,923$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.922544%11 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4446…b89cbacked No50c5,871$2,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,938.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3019…631ebacked Yes3c5,689$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.99714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad1f…6c61backed Yes15c5,593$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82012129.8%36 W · 85 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+142.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes4c5,443$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.61466.5%3 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-81.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No75c5,397$4,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.677163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71e2…31c4backed No35c5,362$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,462.424139%16 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e3d…8554backed Yes12c5,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c4,724$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.611970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed No78c4,251$3,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.187156.3%40 W · 31 L+14.8wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+113.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c4,200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4320%0 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6f…be20backed Yes14c4,021$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.281910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-79%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f47…d66ebacked No77c3,897$3,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d6…b213backed Yes45c3,242$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdab4…e253backed No57c3,144$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.691283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick69cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c3,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f4…8e52backed Yes3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x335c…6e62backed Yes38c2,864$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.391216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes1c2,845$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.918625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes34c2,814$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.4911328.3%32 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes13c2,671$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.832729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a1…2371backed Yes18c2,593$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a69…c2a0backed No44c2,552$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,440.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Yes16c2,250$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.491560%9 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98a5…f3f0backed Yes16c2,169$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.37425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x054a…f218backed Yes2c2,109$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes1c2,108$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.41205%1 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-80.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf59…779fbacked Yes33c2,029$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fff…be78backed Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes11c1,974$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.973718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-59.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72c3…25adbacked No57c1,926$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.973151.6%16 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d18…c7e2backed Yes43c1,901$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6418…730cbacked No67c1,895$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.581090%9 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick65cpaid+38.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6dc4…6770backed Yes9c1,819$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.5911244.6%50 W · 62 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x54ab…cd5bbacked No60c1,635$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3fa…af3abacked No68c1,628$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.821861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9095…96f7backed No67c1,600$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.112972.4%21 W · 8 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+39.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x66ef…dd2fbacked Yes10c1,593$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.09911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-55.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afa…a3f1backed Yes16c1,571$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.39633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+148%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Yes4c1,522$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.55922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf69b…0a45backed Yes14c1,508$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.099927.3%27 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes13c1,500$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.4728021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6810…38a3backed Yes15c1,500$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.791631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+58.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cc8…f1b3backed No62c1,500$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5741464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ff…3fcdbacked Yes76c1,498$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.651513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-72.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b5a…fa77backed Yes17c1,430$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes17c1,400$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24112012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4098…f922backed Yes20c1,344$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.2570%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6a2…c9b7backed Yes53c1,322$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.541631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes12c1,265$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.768619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f72…230abacked Yes35c1,238$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.53185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-82.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x846f…750ebacked No73c1,233$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.8313038.5%50 W · 80 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2cf…c231backed Yes42c1,221$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c1,200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.282126.6%14 W · 198 L+0.7wins0.00per pick6cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f60…5fe1backed Yes1c1,200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c62…84fcbacked Yes2c1,185$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6b4…6709backed Yes34c1,173$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.481233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+139.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec83…13f7backed Yes2c1,146$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.551618.8%3 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick5cpaid+464.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes13c1,129$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.3211316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0a…a9e0backed No45c1,080$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a47…e66cbacked Yes38c1,050$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6efb…81d6backed Yes51c1,031$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8c…e77dbacked Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3621…cceabacked Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7bf…e441backed No70c999.99$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001560%9 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked No35c992.83$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.873148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes2c948.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.14190%0 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccfe…1ed1backed Yes31c943.95$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed No69c937.53$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.448634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes32c937.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.