TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf5d6…b213

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Champions League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2552%13 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$18.81
Norway vs. England: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.24
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+100%+$15
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$93.2
France vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$136.3
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.4
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$492Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$402.43
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.05
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$49.95
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.2
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41.41
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.04
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+89.6%+$130.84
Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+95.1%+$141.38
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$60
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$129.5
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.25
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$130.2
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.48
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.21
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$123.2
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.5
All 25 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hull City AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.5
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$675Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+78.7%+$531.24
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+203%+$195.54
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.88
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.52
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.6
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.11
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$55.6
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$46.92
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.74
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41
Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.96
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$117.18
All 15 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-53.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+344.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+101.9%+$95.44
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.62
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.66
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$311.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,458Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,457.67
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.