Commodities · resolved market
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f817e85bcd3e56fe48505f00e46c02f0b05dd4ae9f35f89fffc994228d21327
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 40c | 12,552$5,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,058.7 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed No | 67c | 11,230$7,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,665.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 29c | 4,666$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,318.43 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 4,651$2,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.77 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 61c | 4,355$2,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,643.11 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 23c | 4,257$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,262.11 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…1c13backed No | 61c | 3,995$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 49c | 3,341$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.59 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,177$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.13 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,799$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3809…906dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,622$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 2,583$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 70c | 2,578$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.46 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…a995backed Yes | 10c | 2,227$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 22c | 1,904$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 38c | 1,828$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.26 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 70c | 1,607$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.43 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…6f1ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,536$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,465$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.1 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 8c | 1,413$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.66 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 41c | 1,177$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.59 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 25c | 1,116$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.15 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 31c | 1,109$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.87 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…9788backed No | 38c | 1,072$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 10c | 950$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 50c | 867.2$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.29 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 62c | 800.25$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.01 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 4c | 780$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 18c | 765$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.3 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…69debacked Yes | 33c | 763.65$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 35cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…ac05backed Yes | 60c | 686.69$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.47 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…8880backed No | 71c | 672.88$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 30c | 671.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.16 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 19c | 622.33$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.02 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 603.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 17c | 579.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.61 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…51ccbacked No | 57c | 547.44$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 5c | 523.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 45c | 523.66$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…e8a9backed Yes | 3c | 523.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 38c | 510.32$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.31 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 485$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 44c | 472.33$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.02 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed No | 48c | 468.36$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.68 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 77c | 453.75$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 66c | 437.22$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.22 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 50c | 410.75$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.02 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…16d9backed Yes | 30c | 400$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 68c | 357.3$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 13c | 356.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +222.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 42c | 350.35$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.94 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 47c | 336.34$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.71 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 24c | 331$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a66…48c7backed No | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.79 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +189.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d6…b213backed Yes | 61c | 306$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 33c | 300$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe95a…ea6dbacked No | 37c | 267.71$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 38c | 261.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +60%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 24c | 251.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.49 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 241.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…e24abacked Yes | 40c | 220$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No | 21c | 220$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 44c | 219$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 48c | 217.85$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 23c | 208.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.78 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 24c | 200$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…a745backed No | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…7000backed Yes | 13c | 183.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…4f46backed No | 27c | 180$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +273.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed No | 80c | 177$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 28c | 175$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…0a87backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 30c | 162.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 17c | 160$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 22c | 154$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf079…098bbacked Yes | 13c | 152.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 31c | 138.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked No | 23c | 137$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02e…3b28backed Yes | 20c | 124.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 45c | 119.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 65c | 118.22$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked No | 29c | 110$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 32c | 106.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.11 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 33c | 104.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 103$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5302…0b79backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3c…fc9dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…508fbacked Yes | 30c | 98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 22c | 95.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 34c | 93.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a7…3362backed Yes | 79c | 92.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…79c0backed Yes | 45c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?this page
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.