Commodities · resolved market
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1362aa4c9f2caaf523b6392e79e29b3bf3de6ebfa63db41bc459f8d6c756abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 4c | 5,076$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.06 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,941$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.85 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 58c | 4,030$2,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,678.49 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 75c | 2,785$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.94 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 71c | 2,499$1,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.4 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,351$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.84 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 4c | 2,215$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.83 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…6f1ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,080$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…a995backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.06 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada9…840bbacked Yes | 66c | 1,962$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.04 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,859$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…ac05backed Yes | 29c | 1,755$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.02 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 23c | 1,680$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.59 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd949…5507backed Yes | 19c | 1,568$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa3…e24abacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Yes | 50c | 1,434$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 38c | 1,416$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,370$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82c…620abacked Yes | 16c | 1,213$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,131$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 24c | 1,099$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.71 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 20c | 1,028$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.29 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 11c | 1,005$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.11 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…3ceabacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f5…5cfbbacked Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 977.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de3…765fbacked Yes | 31c | 943.7$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ae…e370backed No | 33c | 691.09$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 4c | 615.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 13c | 564.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 12c | 560.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…0a87backed Yes | 4c | 553.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 12c | 520.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 61c | 519.94$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…6146backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 3c | 496$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 79c | 458$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d6…b213backed Yes | 23c | 434$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 24c | 421.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 72c | 415.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Yes | 15c | 400$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef9…0608backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 48c | 311$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.59 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…ca9ebacked Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…047fbacked Yes | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 61c | 284.29$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.92 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 77c | 272.41$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Yes | 42c | 264.9$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 77c | 262.31$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 260$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 41c | 256.38$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 17c | 250$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.5 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 33c | 249.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b4…f3c1backed No | 76c | 212.05$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…16d9backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…1db9backed No | 38c | 199.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 39c | 196.72$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e75…ab84backed Yes | 22c | 183.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed Yes | 58c | 168.57$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…cb1fbacked No | 50c | 160.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.28 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -90%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bb…7466backed Yes | 63c | 160$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…85b5backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 24c | 146.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed Yes | 20c | 135.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb3…d024backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 30c | 110.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 103.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 49c | 100.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…b571backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…b9c9backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…f126backed Yes | 36c | 89.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Yes | 50c | 87.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb02d…109dbacked Yes | 63c | 85.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…3d3cbacked Yes | 47c | 79.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…5975backed Yes | 47c | 75.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee1…de7abacked Yes | 47c | 75.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 54c | 70.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…9a0cbacked Yes | 16c | 63.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…7735backed No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 61c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9420…b86cbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa541…5e37backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 24c | 55.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 19c | 54.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7974…f7d1backed Yes | 47c | 50.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?this page
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.