Commodities · resolved market
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01c034e3f5b0a9b309da370d77e2f8fad7982f477fc373bad601edb8a4391886
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $252,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed Yes | 5c | 7,485$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.29 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98d…667bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,632$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…8b3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,645$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 5c | 1,604$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 12c | 1,367$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.27 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7033…6f77backed Yes | 1c | 940$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 6c | 896.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e1…f058backed Yes | 5c | 822.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ec…052dbacked Yes | 2c | 703.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 5c | 645.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 641.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 6c | 501.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada9…840bbacked Yes | 5c | 493.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 3c | 380$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 378.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 359.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c3…b054backed Yes | 19c | 345$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 319.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 14c | 265$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 13c | 259.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 7c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…332fbacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +222.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?this page
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by May 1?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?No won
- Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.