TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5067…ba4f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
92
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT4017.5%7 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+49.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+1,691.9%+$947.45
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$146.47
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.42
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.98
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$229.1
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.15
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.75
Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.82
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.12
US strikes Iraq by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+70%+$237.15
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,088Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,087.84
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$459Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+1,938.4%+$8,901.45
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.61
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.68
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT1811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-71%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.76
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.61
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$668Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$667.92
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.26
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$295
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.87
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.48
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$198
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+136.6%+$47.8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+185%+$102.25
All 18 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.54
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.9
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$342
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.62
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.5
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+884.7%+$881.37
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-49.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+900%+$270
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$103
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Final Stage: Canada vs. USAbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Major solar storm by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.54
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.