Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9d7a2b2e12a357010f5f23bc51fd5224a04dfdb8738ffa97152d92634036acf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,657,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,657,808 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked No | 0c | 699,921$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.92 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0e…06f9backed No | 0c | 115,567$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.65 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 0c | 103,500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403b…5007backed No | 0c | 49,970$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…1e59backed No | 1c | 20,240$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.48 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…02f7backed No | 0c | 14,990$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked No | 0c | 13,610$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 52c | 12,221$6,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,369.35 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb809…b13cbacked No | 0c | 12,172$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 0c | 11,700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…c86ebacked No | 0c | 11,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -96.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccb…fbbbbacked No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed No | 0c | 10,979$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…5651backed No | 0c | 10,333$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e9…2e24backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 8,676$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked Yes | 80c | 7,543$6,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.63 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed No | 0c | 7,320$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 55c | 6,255$3,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,796.91 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 58c | 5,868$3,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,451.75 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 47c | 5,745$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,679.21 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 60c | 5,145$3,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.78 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…73d9backed No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc642…fb6fbacked No | 0c | 4,984$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 41c | 4,375$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.96 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…2ba5backed No | 0c | 4,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 19c | 3,955$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.45 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 52c | 3,318$1,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 77c | 3,146$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.12 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 3c | 3,074$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95bc…8060backed No | 2c | 2,578$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 41c | 2,316$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.88 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 19c | 2,124$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.08 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 59c | 2,122$1,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.61 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 42c | 2,070$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.33 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 13c | 2,027$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.92 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +25.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2d99…4ca3backed No | 38c | 2,000$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 9c | 1,900$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 43c | 1,851$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.72 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 49c | 1,799$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.07 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 1,675$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.94 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…b6ebbacked No | 1c | 1,497$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 35cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 28c | 1,437$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.95 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 18c | 1,388$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.84 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…00babacked No | 46c | 1,325$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.71 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 40c | 1,245$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.91 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…ca4fbacked No | 73c | 1,218$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 5c | 1,200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 49c | 1,058$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.68 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 78c | 1,035$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.09 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 44c | 992.55$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.82 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 23c | 985.19$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.95 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 42c | 955.64$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.64 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…7145backed No | 64c | 941.05$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bca…53dcbacked Yes | 29c | 929.6$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.89 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 916$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 48c | 913.45$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.41 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 44c | 911.16$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.16 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…56d5backed No | 66c | 909.21$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 897.3$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.56 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…7b0ebacked Yes | 34c | 893.36$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.09 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed8…973cbacked No | 41c | 875$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.58 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 25c | 871.95$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.38 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…e440backed No | 48c | 854.24$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.61 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e2…5136backed Yes | 28c | 850.31$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.43 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 18c | 810.85$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.09 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…55cebacked No | 8c | 782.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 17c | 753.59$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.72 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 21c | 736.79$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.51 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes | 27c | 725$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +138%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 17c | 665.91$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 20c | 659$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.53 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5a44…5616backed Yes | 78c | 642.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.12 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 69c | 640.21$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.13 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed No | 26c | 624.18$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.81 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 61c | 611.38$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.38 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed No | 28c | 569.96$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…be6fbacked Yes | 13c | 553$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed Yes | 13c | 547$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…03ffbacked Yes | 39c | 532.24$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 27c | 507$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 79c | 498.81$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…17d2backed Yes | 40c | 497.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.65 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes | 11c | 455$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 27c | 446.72$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.5 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 73c | 436$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.28 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked Yes | 27c | 436$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1968…0088backed Yes | 42c | 432.11$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 76c | 431.89$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.56 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 431.17$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.49 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes | 42c | 429.4$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.45 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 13c | 413$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.31 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 29c | 404.63$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.76 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked No | 45c | 401.66$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.28 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 400$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked No | 3c | 398.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…a539backed Yes | 13c | 359$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.33 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 42c | 358.25$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 52c | 347.09$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.09 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.