Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3deb01dce09d900494ba740ee18b28b04f9f858303be33194999c071cbb1f976
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,960 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 13,429$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,713.57 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78cb…b7cfbacked Yes | 1c | 8,820$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 21c | 8,645$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,847.25 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,524$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked Yes | 28c | 3,673$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e2…5136backed Yes | 30c | 3,389$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 18c | 3,279$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.4 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 6c | 2,962$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.31 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…745ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,923$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.64 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…aa56backed Yes | 31c | 2,913$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 15c | 2,843$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.72 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 75c | 2,759$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.77 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…d56cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,494$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4726…7809backed Yes | 5c | 2,419$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…4b60backed Yes | 37c | 2,383$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a9…be2abacked Yes | 52c | 2,283$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,193$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.43 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed Yes | 5c | 2,098$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 2,068$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.03 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…e884backed Yes | 13c | 1,897$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.72 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,887$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.56 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…1114backed Yes | 18c | 1,852$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed Yes | 47c | 1,703$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 10c | 1,683$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.73 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…72acbacked Yes | 10c | 1,616$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…4397backed Yes | 17c | 1,582$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 32c | 1,543$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.21 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,541$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b4…4d69backed Yes | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 71c | 1,450$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.53 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9be…7cf7backed Yes | 25c | 1,436$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes | 24c | 1,401$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.43 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 65c | 1,342$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.43 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,286$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.04 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 19c | 1,277$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.52 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 2c | 1,218$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 56c | 1,160$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.08 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43bf…c53abacked Yes | 37c | 1,067$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.45 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,030$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…f9c2backed Yes | 17c | 1,024$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,017$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 9c | 987.39$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked No | 64c | 946.3$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.14 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 59c | 900.84$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.13 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 883.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.66 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 876.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c6…8390backed Yes | 2c | 873.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 861.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed Yes | 6c | 854.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…56d5backed No | 79c | 825.03$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.74 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb809…b13cbacked Yes | 18c | 786.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 11c | 748.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 17c | 705.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 28c | 698.78$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.12 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 76c | 690.97$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.89 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 671.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…0b26backed Yes | 33c | 670.13$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 33c | 648.68$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.12 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked Yes | 11c | 646.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 7c | 633.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 621.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 610.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 11c | 598$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 8c | 583.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 7c | 568.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 3c | 563.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 25c | 563.28$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 62c | 546.49$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.43 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…4b3bbacked Yes | 10c | 512.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 27c | 507.86$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 8c | 500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…2694backed No | 64c | 497.14$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 70c | 481.84$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.89 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…9158backed Yes | 27c | 481.61$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 481.18$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.78 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…8783backed Yes | 26c | 477.41$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 18c | 457$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…a400backed No | 65c | 454.35$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.73 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 59c | 453.05$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.5 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked Yes | 9c | 450$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 5cpaid | +450.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…0f80backed Yes | 36c | 444.77$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a6…9c94backed Yes | 3c | 435.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 44c | 410.21$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.19 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa81…21b3backed Yes | 5c | 409.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…22a1backed No | 80c | 406.32$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes | 19c | 403$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed No | 57c | 399.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6e…42d4backed No | 69c | 397.13$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed Yes | 32c | 392.48$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 19c | 391$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.29 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 22c | 387.62$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0e…06f9backed Yes | 6c | 369.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18f…605abacked Yes | 71c | 368.38$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 41c | 355.82$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.7 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 19c | 337$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 65c | 327$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…84e8backed Yes | 42c | 321.87$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.79 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc225…b357backed Yes | 31c | 315.12$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.