Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe592a759d6d55fcce54dd05d7f71aab8b04dc52a86a1de610d8e074adbd643b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,028 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed Yes | 11c | 1,415$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 1,168$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.85 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,149$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 10c | 1,087$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…745ebacked No | 75c | 1,039$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.68 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…7028backed Yes | 17c | 1,010$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…9fb0backed Yes | 2c | 623.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 6c | 592.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 429.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c71…6c6abacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec88…5094backed Yes | 6c | 391.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 380.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4731backed Yes | 15c | 203.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe5…3e27backed No | 78c | 190.72$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 28c | 179.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4252…4a6ebacked No | 70c | 171.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 22c | 161.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…5ed0backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 24c | 128.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…c209backed Yes | 16c | 127.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…c41ebacked No | 47c | 117.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…fc65backed Yes | 52c | 116.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…e5d1backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d8…dd09backed Yes | 28c | 109.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 26c | 105.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 27c | 102.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 101.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 25c | 98.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7c…ce17backed Yes | 51c | 97.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 15c | 79.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…1e59backed No | 72c | 75.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…a290backed No | 59c | 69.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 67c | 67.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…17eebacked No | 70c | 64.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…23bebacked Yes | 34c | 58.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 54.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -11.4wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x650f…a3e5backed No | 61c | 49.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…ed61backed Yes | 41c | 48.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…fb11backed Yes | 37c | 45.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b2…24ddbacked No | 46c | 40.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd268…5609backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8440…a714backed Yes | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe268…61e0backed No | 66c | 26.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 62c | 23.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda3b…0623backed No | 67c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7933…92b0backed No | 67c | 22.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…0771backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 63c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 76c | 19.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…2cf7backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…7a51backed No | 77c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 1, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.