Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa97b48f131e4ed08deae871bda595416344092624bf4f75e4b52879a1969c229

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $79,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,743 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

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Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes	10c	3,421$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.09	72	26.4%19 W · 53 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes	2c	3,349$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.68	165	7.3%12 W · 153 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes	23c	3,111$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$701.61	367	50.4%185 W · 182 L	+39.6wins	+0.11per pick	40cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	6c	2,420$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.55	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes	26c	2,000$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513	264	29.2%77 W · 187 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,959$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.18	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41f…7145backed No	78c	1,574$1,222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351.88	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-4.6wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes	1c	1,565$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.39	71	40.8%29 W · 42 L	+7.8wins	+0.11per pick	30cpaid	+112.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cd3…fc1ebacked Yes	8c	1,530$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	1,141$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.18	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes	3c	1,088$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.19	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	+2.7wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+197.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d93…7f30backed No	63c	1,020$643 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$377.4	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes	12c	1,015$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes	35c	859.95$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	135	18.5%25 W · 110 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-16%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No	79c	830.19$654 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176.24	207	49.3%102 W · 105 L	-23.0wins	-0.11per pick	60cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	6c	829.07$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	129	18.6%24 W · 105 L	+8.5wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	819$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…115ebacked Yes	37c	752$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.24	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55bf…b569backed Yes	22c	750$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.43	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	4c	695.06$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.13	228	2.6%6 W · 222 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	2c	672.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	371	7%26 W · 345 L	+10.6wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes	20c	508.6$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	179	29.1%52 W · 127 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x459c…7ebcbacked No	43c	501.01$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$284.57	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…cd36backed Yes	11c	488$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.68	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47a5…6834backed Yes	22c	475.49$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.4	80	33.8%27 W · 53 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+57%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	23c	452.09$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.91	589	27.2%160 W · 429 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc3…1453backed No	71c	415.97$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.87	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.27per pick	44cpaid	+68.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd08…bd74backed Yes	11c	401$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.11	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No	65c	400$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142	156	43.6%68 W · 88 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes	32c	380.01$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	219	26.5%58 W · 161 L	+12.7wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+76.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	10c	364.23$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.34	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No	67c	337.65$227 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.73	313	44.1%138 W · 175 L	+19.6wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd45f…d760backed Yes	11c	325.14$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	25cpaid	-82.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4252…4a6ebacked No	64c	313.8$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.8	24	75%18 W · 6 L	+2.9wins	+0.12per pick	63cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x42f0…fc65backed Yes	32c	309.83$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.03	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes	9c	275.66$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	67	26.9%18 W · 49 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes	37c	268$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.16	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes	34c	249.98$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.99	353	55.5%196 W · 157 L	+36.1wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	7c	248.38$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	501	30.5%153 W · 348 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes	57c	243.58$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.1	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes	10c	216.58$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.22	317	28.7%91 W · 226 L	-35.7wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	6c	192.12$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+41%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6962…745ebacked Yes	57c	191.05$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.51	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes	24c	190.36$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.11	174	14.4%25 W · 149 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea5…ac86backed Yes	56c	178.94$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	23c	175.74$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.75	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f64…8006backed Yes	12c	173.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-64.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…0f8cbacked No	75c	171.65$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.31	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.29per pick	46cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb79c…f6c6backed Yes	24c	170.22$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.65	47	31.9%15 W · 32 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85aa…4667backed Yes	7c	162.57$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes	25c	160$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	122	27.9%34 W · 88 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes	17c	150.52$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.23	133	21.8%29 W · 104 L	-6.6wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6098…c419backed Yes	13c	149.3$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.94	45	11.1%5 W · 40 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes	7c	144.37$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	284	38.7%110 W · 174 L	+13.0wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2822…3f0cbacked Yes	8c	137.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	44	11.4%5 W · 39 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31e6…0f21backed Yes	18c	130$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.03	123	30.1%37 W · 86 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked No	79c	126.58$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.58	153	38.6%59 W · 94 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57dd…c41ebacked No	65c	126.02$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.11	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	+4.3wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3070…7606backed Yes	21c	119$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.9	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	45cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes	29c	116.6$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.3	60	56.7%34 W · 26 L	+9.0wins	+0.15per pick	42cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes	18c	114.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	139	18.7%26 W · 113 L	-13.9wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	77c	111.37$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.3	865	42.3%366 W · 499 L	-3.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed No	74c	105.2$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.49	164	33.5%55 W · 109 L	-19.0wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc3cf…1e59backed No	72c	101.36$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.36	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes	20c	100.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.14	132	28%37 W · 95 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	131	38.9%51 W · 80 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a3…2259backed No	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.4	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	50cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc4…8f2cbacked Yes	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+2.7wins	+0.19per pick	38cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a85…1811backed Yes	10c	99.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	46	30.4%14 W · 32 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No	66c	95.96$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.42	53	75.5%40 W · 13 L	+10.0wins	+0.19per pick	57cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4647…23aebacked Yes	31c	95.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8903…0dc2backed Yes	19c	91.63$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.24	68	36.8%25 W · 43 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	+62.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x342f…2423backed Yes	13c	89.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	41cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6e…488dbacked Yes	37c	81.62$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5a…2729backed Yes	38c	79.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	70cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yes	33c	76.74$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	88	67%59 W · 29 L	+15.2wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+72%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x24c6…ace2backed No	68c	73.6$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.6	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1360…2e9fbacked Yes	55c	72.8$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-2.7wins	-0.20per pick	34cpaid	-71.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	21c	70$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	396	21%83 W · 313 L	-57.0wins	-0.14per pick	35cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed No	70c	70$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes	30c	70$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes	29c	68.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-13%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7203…16f1backed No	73c	68.49$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.49	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cad…a290backed No	65c	63.51$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.51	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb543…9961backed Yes	20c	60$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	101	21.8%22 W · 79 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	24c	59.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.23	342	34.8%119 W · 223 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	30c	51.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.47	428	18.7%80 W · 348 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d4…7b32backed Yes	59c	50.52$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06c2…23bebacked Yes	40c	49.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+16%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd663…ca64backed Yes	21c	49.81$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	100	53%53 W · 47 L	+9.9wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+71.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No	74c	44.5$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.4	323	45.2%146 W · 177 L	+9.6wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-18%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d55…04b8backed No	78c	38.46$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.46	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6435…021fbacked Yes	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd268…5609backed No	74c	31.21$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.21	20	80%16 W · 4 L	+2.8wins	+0.14per pick	66cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No	80c	30.3$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.06	169	61.5%104 W · 65 L	+12.6wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ded…7315backed No	66c	30.28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.28	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No	71c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.73	267	56.2%150 W · 117 L	+12.3wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab90…9f18backed No	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36f4…41e2backed No	72c	27.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+41%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1301…2cf7backed No	75c	27.33$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.83	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	61cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026?this page
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 1, 2026?No won
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 2, 2026?No won
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?No won
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026?No won
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026?No won
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?Yes won
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?Yes won
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event