Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfbacce3909f8e65c6a6ec82cbca812f3384e324e167cf9f015675374c21074b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,255 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 3c | 27,858$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.51 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 24c | 12,502$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,944.51 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 2c | 10,638$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccb…fbbbbacked Yes | 1c | 10,508$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…8c6cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,627$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,616$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 2c | 6,717$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.67 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,788$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 47c | 4,032$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.93 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,029$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 3c | 2,815$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,768$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 65c | 2,180$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.19 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,110$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.78 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be5…b95fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,958$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,907$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…a4babacked Yes | 1c | 1,875$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 4c | 1,685$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,356$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…657cbacked Yes | 28c | 1,244$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.5 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 5c | 1,002$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c40…3d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Yes | 7c | 994.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 3c | 970.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 899.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 19c | 825.41$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.95 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 7c | 797.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 11c | 687$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 6c | 655.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…c419backed Yes | 8c | 557$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 23c | 547.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.91 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 4c | 460.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 39c | 439.13$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.26 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 11c | 416$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked Yes | 19c | 399.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 294.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 11c | 289$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 8c | 283.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe966…2930backed Yes | 23c | 282.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 26cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 11c | 278$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 262.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 255.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 6c | 244.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…b2b6backed Yes | 9c | 225.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 13c | 207.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 59c | 195.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccde…66ddbacked Yes | 17c | 195.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 15c | 191.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4252…4a6ebacked No | 70c | 186.15$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…d04cbacked Yes | 17c | 180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +470.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 174.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 160.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 14c | 160$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 11c | 155$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 120.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ae…3f78backed Yes | 9c | 120.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 17c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 80c | 118.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 46c | 108.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9338…75babacked Yes | 18c | 105.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 17c | 102.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 102.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 15c | 100.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +8.3wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 11c | 99.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 12c | 96.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…1e59backed No | 67c | 74.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 22c | 70.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…5ed0backed No | 73c | 68.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…a290backed No | 60c | 66.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…f727backed No | 76c | 65.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 63c | 64.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +10.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked No | 78c | 63.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…ec49backed No | 74c | 63.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b97…32f1backed Yes | 31c | 37.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce50…1e2dbacked No | 72c | 33.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…8bb6backed No | 77c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…6cafbacked No | 76c | 30.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 67c | 29.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…6f7ebacked No | 72c | 26.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 55c | 24.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…3455backed No | 72c | 22.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8c…47c0backed No | 67c | 21.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 66c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +272%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 68c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa926…849abacked No | 68c | 15.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on March 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.