TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x05c8…a2f8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
113
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Middle East, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 60 out of 100; worst Music at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT6437.5%24 W · 40 L+8.3wins+0.13per pick25cpaid+29.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 64 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$73
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+172.2%+$189.78
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+203%+$134
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$82
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+191.6%+$131.41
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.01
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$62
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.33
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.8
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+359.8%+$313
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+395.4%+$83.9
Showing 25 of 64 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$83
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+210.1%+$135.5
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$59.82
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.92
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.48
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+153.8%+$30.3
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 10–15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$88
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
Will the Labour Party (PvdA) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.57
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.99
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$191
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$334.01
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$103
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$143
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$272
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$83
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+106.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+157.3%+$312.92
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+56.3%+$29.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$503Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+158.4%+$796.94
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$357
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Derek Grasty advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Final - Canada vs. USAbacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$63.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$73
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.