Us Politics · resolved market
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa38abe7921e1a335541afc488b6eb046c71c203f166fa0b5281d4491f8ac7577
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 13c | 5,530$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.02 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +10.8wins | +0.41per pick | 24cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 1,967$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.29 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 14c | 1,905$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 23c | 1,476$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.8 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 16c | 1,296$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.28 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,164$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 16c | 778.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.53 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…be73backed Yes | 4c | 673.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…d478backed Yes | 33c | 614.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…b335backed Yes | 4c | 384.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Yes | 13c | 382.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 348.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 341.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b99…f82cbacked Yes | 19c | 324.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…3f31backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 307.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 12c | 235.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +87%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…025cbacked Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…c484backed Yes | 21c | 228.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…a2f8backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 19c | 196.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 14c | 194$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 37c | 188$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 9c | 187.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…b793backed Yes | 16c | 187.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…1c65backed Yes | 13c | 150.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1367backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 71c | 145$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 11c | 127.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…a886backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 25c | 101.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…488dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 19c | 95.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Yes | 16c | 95.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 18c | 93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 86.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 30c | 81.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 79.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe19c…f162backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 18c | 66.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90a9…6117backed Yes | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…c2f0backed Yes | 32c | 63.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…5b1bbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked Yes | 20c | 57.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…4ed9backed Yes | 24c | 50.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed No | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed No | 68c | 40.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 21.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0190…1b7dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 16.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?this page
- Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Yes won
- Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.