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Us Politics · resolved market

Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$128,303
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,303 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf6d2…7048backed No0c22,849$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8570%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16be…5f03backed Yes31c10,640$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,340.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59e9…8ebdbacked Yes47c9,000$4,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,774.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+113%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaad…69ccbacked No7c7,925$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.45933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e06…89edbacked No69c5,910$4,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,077.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x108c…6e8ebacked No69c4,970$3,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,426.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed No65c3,141$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.723161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fc4…08ccbacked Yes25c2,143$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+297.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c2,000$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.9569634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No22c1,601$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.41752.9%9 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick28cpaid+80.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No15c1,528$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.4333313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fab…f47bbacked No21c1,200$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No63c1,172$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.923961.5%24 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+68.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No77c1,149$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.443663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes28c1,001$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.22615.4%4 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.1541238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No14c960.08$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.65322.6%12 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No75c900$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.763342.4%14 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x234e…240bbacked Yes23c863.61$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.61425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a6…fc8cbacked Yes24c844.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+322.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3462…de48backed No75c767.6$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.5475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d62…27e0backed Yes76c608.05$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.73580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No75c582.82$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.412138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-44.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef9f…8924backed Yes21c499.99$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3942665.4%17 W · 9 L+10.8wins+0.41per pick24cpaid+149.6%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No14c476.96$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.141833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+113.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No20c469$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8210%0 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e24…8266backed No79c467.52$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1073…d8babacked No8c464.22$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.37333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes22c460$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked Yes73c410.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.963100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No4c400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40c4…adbebacked Yes29c340$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+105.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes20c300$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2402437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+68.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x89d1…664abacked No17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No20c233.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.956832.4%22 W · 46 L-8.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes21c226$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.1812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No76c216.73$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.357250%36 W · 36 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked Yes43c208.91$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ee…4b33backed No78c207.77$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.06560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc14…2e9bbacked No75c203.19$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x26df…8211backed Yes30c203.04$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.041546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c201.55$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3156733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes22c200$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.14847.9%23 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9507…7b04backed No80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes14c196.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.632213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd513…e249backed No8c187.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x535e…3295backed Yes22c184.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.22520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad8…93b6backed No72c179.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.61450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No23c165.12$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.68150%0 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No10c154.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.983636.1%13 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c0…38acbacked Yes19c143.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.34616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x563a…f578backed Yes19c143.62$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.341020%2 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+95.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked Yes19c143.62$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.33922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+117.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes28c135.46$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.176833.8%23 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes27c125.21$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.891,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef9…5840backed Yes20c122.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.66333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+63.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes39c122.08$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No37c120.95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9314935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes21c101.27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9a…0793backed Yes28c100.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.71812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b7…1622backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+51.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9907…ca66backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+95.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7318445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa03…2927backed No72c99.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+169%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed No74c99.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.99728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid+115.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc79…f792backed Yes21c93.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.05540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+233.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02b3…77b6backed No26c91.6$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6e…30a4backed Yes30c89.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c89.66$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.631,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6473…19f7backed Yes28c89.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f9…1e9ebacked Yes23c88.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd7c…cd5ebacked Yes14c78.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0de…fc0dbacked No79c73$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-68.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb51…359dbacked Yes78c70.86$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.591163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes27c70.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.593426.5%9 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd37…5ce9backed No73c68.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005d…0cb7backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b13…f125backed Yes79c65.55$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-74.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c9…d567backed No73c64.73$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.33837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+59.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No70c61.56$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0622347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes19c59.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.98128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0704…295ebacked Yes18c58.11$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+114.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5462…e3f6backed No74c54.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10fe…9af6backed No20c53.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No33c53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.262832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Yes78c52.44$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.543100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25b9…3058backed Yes26c52.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.582846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+39.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0c8…e944backed No61c52.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes28c51.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.32236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Yes78c51.34$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.29666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes29c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-76.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ca0…cb82backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb290…d7e4backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No71c49.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3633618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No71c49.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6913046.9%61 W · 69 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes25c48.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.661926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-43.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9b…4611backed No77c48.35$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb665…ed24backed Yes78c47.24$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.39862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.