Us Politics · resolved market
Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ac10377aa8ca26384aa5714b2ff891856d91414cdf651cc841a5b155390dc88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 12c | 780$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 78c | 738.25$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.28 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 506.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Yes | 4c | 503.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 11c | 378.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 20c | 325.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 264$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 14c | 222$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 195.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d6…62c8backed Yes | 19c | 157.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 19c | 138$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 117.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 99.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed Yes | 42c | 38.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -81%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 73c | 38.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 80c | 21.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…92f2backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7f…9cbbbacked No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -10.0wins | -0.40per pick | 64cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x3f52…43debacked No | 79c | 13.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?this page
- Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Yes won
- Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.