TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$166,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$158,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,735 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa717…8d57backed Yes8c3,780$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe8d…9ac2backed Yes8c3,226$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b91…ee21backed Yes6c3,166$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad9e…ceb9backed Yes8c3,086$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…f725backed Yes7c3,080$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes6c2,367$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5133313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2095…753bbacked Yes7c2,210$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ae6…6fefbacked Yes8c2,119$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d7…78b4backed Yes8c2,026$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d9b…2e38backed Yes8c1,940$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2878…6f5dbacked Yes7c1,874$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fa4…3db7backed Yes4c1,874$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x845c…6660backed Yes7c1,600$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c5…087bbacked Yes8c1,558$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a9…5958backed Yes8c1,476$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes3c1,435$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.311466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…bd3cbacked Yes8c1,306$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f07…58c8backed Yes7c1,304$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ed2…0d2cbacked Yes7c1,303$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x666c…69a6backed Yes8c1,296$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ae…beb4backed Yes8c1,286$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eb8…0474backed Yes8c1,229$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a43…2cb3backed Yes4c1,228$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d4…0f99backed Yes4c1,200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ce4…3a52backed Yes8c1,188$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1517…b032backed Yes8c1,167$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x950a…fca5backed Yes7c1,154$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.72137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13dc…eb83backed Yes10c1,117$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.97100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ca7…2647backed Yes8c1,032$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c4c…5bc5backed Yes7c1,016$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9518…c9e3backed Yes6c999.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes9c978.35$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b2…89d7backed Yes7c972$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe208…52e8backed Yes8c946$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1584…686abacked Yes8c945$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc06f…f952backed Yes4c939$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c920.21$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3855618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc4…6fb7backed Yes4c915$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdea9…a45fbacked Yes8c903$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb55f…db35backed Yes4c880$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes12c660.68$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.57156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-73%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Yes14c659.7$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c658.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.051343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb35a…3601backed Yes8c634$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed Yes3c606.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a65…cad7backed Yes8c585$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes9c579.55$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.74150%0 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes6c551.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8196…c8b4backed Yes8c551$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c525.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.61765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f5d…bc94backed Yes7c507$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d7…11b2backed Yes4c502.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes5c454.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.91128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes7c437.07$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4411529.6%34 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc144…f2acbacked Yes8c424$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes4c418.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1670%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0f…3b2abacked Yes8c412$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7d…d227backed Yes8c406$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes5c400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb864…936dbacked Yes4c378$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e6…aad7backed Yes4c378$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d83…311ebacked Yes8c358$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x585a…26ecbacked Yes4c355.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf75…949abacked Yes4c345$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d79…3c9fbacked Yes9c344.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e9…f064backed Yes8c333$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x294c…33a2backed Yes7c331$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x41dc…a070backed Yes4c329$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e03…f6b7backed Yes4c309$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x121a…274bbacked Yes8c288$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8826…6a57backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa841…2898backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc2e…d3e5backed Yes8c187.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7885…a52ebacked Yes7c181$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes8c176$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.983426.5%9 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes8c162.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9810135.6%36 W · 65 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb29…b0b6backed Yes8c157$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51a0…bc52backed Yes8c150.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c3f…2166backed Yes14c140$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bfd…bab7backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0a6…93a8backed Yes14c122.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes9c121.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-77.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe094…fe93backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.