TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$193,724
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,724 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefde…783dbacked Yes9c8,371$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.3819638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes6c7,539$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.2233313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes18c5,709$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-57.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Yes7c4,862$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.7460%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5abb…8633backed Yes10c4,637$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.16742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4166…b3c7backed Yes9c4,447$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7676…ebe4backed Yes2c2,899$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x950a…fca5backed Yes8c2,896$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.36137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-53.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes3c2,817$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.191466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes8c2,553$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.622213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24aa…7e0abacked Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+1,182.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b22…20debacked Yes11c1,698$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,691$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb700…224abacked Yes3c1,654$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes9c1,600$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15115227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c1,521$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.36765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234e…240bbacked Yes13c1,509$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd273…03afbacked Yes7c1,216$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…65abbacked Yes7c1,119$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c1,032$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.39787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f7d…6e02backed Yes10c1,006$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9518…c9e3backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes12c1,000$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes10c999.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+86.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes9c976.06$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.67150%0 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e11…535abacked Yes12c950$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4165…da31backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No78c899.99$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1942347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5360…b428backed Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfa3…d001backed Yes12c833.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfef6…e212backed Yes12c829.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd854…6d70backed Yes2c809.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4afd…1241backed Yes11c800$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad8…93b6backed No78c799.99$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1721450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…a5ecbacked Yes13c758.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9910…f5f9backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe375…b335backed Yes3c683.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe644…69f7backed Yes22c632.9$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes6c624.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3756733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c557.09$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.911343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e93…2f9dbacked Yes4c550.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes9c520.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.873920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+87%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes11c510.05$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.73156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-73%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4516…7759backed Yes11c500.24$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d4d…a334backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f48…3154backed Yes10c499.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…1c65backed Yes4c477.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-67.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No73c468.52$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2318445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff26…9f77backed Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes5c433.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4206…6d13backed Yes7c423.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf595…8413backed Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes3c409.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.371942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes8c360$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.812631.7%40 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x240a…3aadbacked Yes7c357.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb88…c33cbacked Yes14c351.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1470…f6f8backed Yes5c343.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd1…cfb4backed Yes8c340$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6160%0 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc880…8380backed Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-62.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c324.86$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6844111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xef6c…33efbacked Yes8c302.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+155.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46bc…e64dbacked Yes4c292.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef67…2a33backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-86.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xafc0…c678backed Yes11c282.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes11c281.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9887…8e6dbacked Yes11c272.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…de4bbacked Yes12c265$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+158.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba72…780bbacked Yes6c252.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x188f…b075backed Yes5c250.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1778…a03dbacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b7…1622backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+51.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes9c249.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed No79c249.98$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.986100%6 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+98.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fd2…495dbacked Yes10c235$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb834…ffd5backed Yes22c232.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf88…2dd9backed Yes7c225$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes11c222.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7d…f61ebacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd52…038bbacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c3…ed3ebacked Yes7c219.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5873…db3fbacked Yes12c217.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd633…b796backed Yes14c214.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e8…37b4backed Yes9c211.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes11c206.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.71175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-64.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57b8…3eb6backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42d5…ef60backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a2a…6eabbacked Yes10c199.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202030%6 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-35.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb8ee…c3b8backed Yes13c191.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd84…1292backed Yes5c190.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d9d…c051backed Yes22c181.82$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc461…7e77backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa841…2898backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0eb…6d57backed Yes14c181.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793a…fed5backed Yes13c176.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8dc4…5180backed Yes11c176.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c2…aaa8backed Yes6c173.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff8c…680abacked Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.