Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cbeb5505e3754896ded872e6bcba9e0845ef943f47b8b192e700a1f42107973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 9c | 8,371$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.38 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 7,539$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.22 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed Yes | 18c | 5,709$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,862$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…8633backed Yes | 10c | 4,637$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…b3c7backed Yes | 9c | 4,447$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ebe4backed Yes | 2c | 2,899$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 8c | 2,896$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.36 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,817$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,553$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.62 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…7e0abacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +1,182.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…20debacked Yes | 11c | 1,698$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,691$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…224abacked Yes | 3c | 1,654$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,600$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,521$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234e…240bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,509$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…03afbacked Yes | 7c | 1,216$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked Yes | 7c | 1,119$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,032$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…6e02backed Yes | 10c | 1,006$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…c9e3backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 10c | 999.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 9c | 976.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…535abacked Yes | 12c | 950$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4165…da31backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 78c | 899.99$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…b428backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa3…d001backed Yes | 12c | 833.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef6…e212backed Yes | 12c | 829.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…6d70backed Yes | 2c | 809.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed Yes | 11c | 800$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed No | 78c | 799.99$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…a5ecbacked Yes | 13c | 758.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…f5f9backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…b335backed Yes | 3c | 683.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe644…69f7backed Yes | 22c | 632.9$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 624.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 557.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e93…2f9dbacked Yes | 4c | 550.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 9c | 520.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +87%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 11c | 510.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…7759backed Yes | 11c | 500.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4d…a334backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…3154backed Yes | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…1c65backed Yes | 4c | 477.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…5ff2backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 73c | 468.52$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.23 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…9f77backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 5c | 433.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4206…6d13backed Yes | 7c | 423.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…8413backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 3c | 409.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 8c | 360$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…3aadbacked Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…c33cbacked Yes | 14c | 351.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1470…f6f8backed Yes | 5c | 343.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…cfb4backed Yes | 8c | 340$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…8380backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 324.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef6c…33efbacked Yes | 8c | 302.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…e64dbacked Yes | 4c | 292.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…2a33backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc0…c678backed Yes | 11c | 282.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked Yes | 11c | 281.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…8e6dbacked Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…de4bbacked Yes | 12c | 265$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +158.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…780bbacked Yes | 6c | 252.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188f…b075backed Yes | 5c | 250.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1778…a03dbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b7…1622backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 9c | 249.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed No | 79c | 249.98$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd2…495dbacked Yes | 10c | 235$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb834…ffd5backed Yes | 22c | 232.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf88…2dd9backed Yes | 7c | 225$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 11c | 222.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…f61ebacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd52…038bbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c3…ed3ebacked Yes | 7c | 219.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5873…db3fbacked Yes | 12c | 217.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd633…b796backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e8…37b4backed Yes | 9c | 211.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 11c | 206.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b8…3eb6backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d5…ef60backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…6eabbacked Yes | 10c | 199.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…c3b8backed Yes | 13c | 191.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…1292backed Yes | 5c | 190.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…c051backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc461…7e77backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa841…2898backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed Yes | 14c | 181.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793a…fed5backed Yes | 13c | 176.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc4…5180backed Yes | 11c | 176.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c2…aaa8backed Yes | 6c | 173.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff8c…680abacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?this page
- Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Yes won
- Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.