Us Politics · resolved market
Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43a7ddc52b4d735d3c4555646e2990f2554d2895b57b98199ed421cc07a8f90a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 16c | 3,194$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13dc…eb83backed Yes | 15c | 1,693$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.06 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Yes | 16c | 1,629$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.53 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,038$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.17 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 12c | 1,006$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +10.8wins | +0.41per pick | 24cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 11c | 1,001$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 829.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 735.65$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061d…48eabacked Yes | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…f818backed Yes | 24c | 417.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 16c | 365$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 310$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 9c | 298.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 237.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 8c | 222$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 195.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 13c | 189.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 13c | 180.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +87%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…2a33backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 169.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…5e39backed Yes | 14c | 157.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 77c | 152.53$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…7e44backed Yes | 9c | 143.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 16c | 131.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked Yes | 14c | 109.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 13c | 109.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed Yes | 13c | 109.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed No | 77c | 104.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 12c | 93.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 90.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed Yes | 15c | 81.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -81%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 15c | 80.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…1f13backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…b111backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?this page
- Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Deepak Chopra be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Peter Attia be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?Yes won
- Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
- Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.